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cmuratori's profile
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
@cmuratori

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Casey Muratori

@cmuratori

I'm worried that the baby thinks people can't change.

Seattle
caseymuratori.com
Joined March 2009

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    1. Rafael‏ @sohakes Aug 11
      Replying to @sohakes @cmuratori

      Burden of proof I mean

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
      Replying to @sohakes

      Personally I think that you want vaccine hesitancy in the general case because people tend to overstate the degree to which you know the outcome of mass vaccination to an emergent disease. That has nothing to do with the _rationale_ of the people, though.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
      Replying to @cmuratori @sohakes

      In other words, I think you typically don't want to vaccinate 100% of your population in the first year of an emergent disease with a brand new vaccine. So the _outcome_ of splitting into vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups, especially if they can be geo-isolated, is good.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
      Replying to @cmuratori @sohakes

      The _reasons_ people give for _either_ choice, however, seem very suspect to me and I suspect they are mostly post-hoc explanations, not the real reasons why people did or didn't do something.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
      Replying to @cmuratori @sohakes

      This is actually true of most decisions, I think - most of the time people didn't actually start with an open mind and then do something on the weight of the evidence. Usually they picked one or another thing, and then later they say something about why, but it is not causal.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
      Replying to @cmuratori @sohakes

      So while some people who refuse to be vaccinated _may_ have a sound, logical case for doing so, I wouldn't imagine _most_ do not. But the _same_ is true for those who choose _to_ be vaccinate - some actually took the time to reason through it, but most did not.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Rafael‏ @sohakes Aug 11
      Replying to @cmuratori

      I mean... Yeah. We trust or instincts, and we are built to have decent instincts. That's not bad on itself, but I think people should confront these in face of conflicting evidence, and as a society understand people's behavior. In this case, probably how to increase trust.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
      Replying to @sohakes

      Well, as I've been trying to point out, too, one way NOT to increase trust is by calling people "dumbass"!

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Rafael‏ @sohakes Aug 11
      Replying to @cmuratori

      I didn't get into that because I think so too, I just disagree with the later bits. Your challenge made me think you either had good criticism or you thought we should be skeptical about everything. If you had talked about trust from the start, I would agree.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
      Replying to @sohakes

      Well we definitely disagree on the rest. But I would say, actually, "increase trust" is the wrong way to think about it. The right way to think about it is that trust happens when you demonstrate competence, which modern institutions generally don't.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
      Replying to @cmuratori @sohakes

      In the long run, I suspect mRNA vaccines _will_ increase trust, it's just it's probably hard to measure due to all the other things that were done that were clearly incompetent, which will further _erode_ trust.

      2:58 PM - 11 Aug 2021
      • 3 Likes
      • John Colvin Ivan Braidi
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
          Replying to @cmuratori @sohakes

          But assuming we don't have any big disasters with mRNA in the next few years, I think they will probably be a plus in the trust category long-term. But I fear that there are so many negatives piling up that I'm not sure it matters that much.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Rafael‏ @sohakes Aug 11
          Replying to @cmuratori

          I actually also think the trust erosion was due to all the incompetent handling, at least partially, so I don't think we disagree much on this one.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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