Er, why would 1,000 out of 20,000 be a surprising result for a vaccine billed as being 95% effective? What were they expecting?https://twitter.com/rkhamsi/status/1416163271904727046 …
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Replying to @cmuratori
These kinds of articles drive me insane. There isn't nearly enough information here to know anything useful. What kind of test did they do? If it's lateral flow then the likely number is higher. (Lateral flow has low false positive but high false negative).
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Replying to @StevenBHutton @cmuratori
On the other hand if it's PCR then the false positive rate is pretty unclear (which is SCANDALOUS) but is probably between 1 and 4% (from The Lancet). Which could mean that most of those 1000 positive results are false positives.
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Replying to @StevenBHutton @cmuratori
Furthermore we don't know the rate of baseline immunity to covid among the population, so we can't estimate how many people would've got it in the counter-factual "unvaccinated scenario".
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Replying to @StevenBHutton @cmuratori
What am I supposed to get from this? 1000 people tested positive with an unknown test? An unknown number of those people were vaccinated? This doesn't really tell me anything...
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Replying to @StevenBHutton @cmuratori
...sorry, I don't know why I'm complaining at you it's just been a year of reading articles that say "this number is a bad number" with no context (not even "what would be a good number") and I'm starting to go crazy.
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Replying to @StevenBHutton
No I'm totally on board with everything you're saying. I just don't get it. It seems like people have very unrealistic expectations, like that a vaccine means you never get COVID, or that "testing negative" is all you need to do to ensure that nobody gets it, etc.
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Replying to @cmuratori @StevenBHutton
The number of people who actually deeply understand how the scientific method works is far too small. That is the core problem our country needs to solve.
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At this point, I would be delighted if we could even get our "scientists" to understand how the scientific method works, because at this point, a significant portion don't seem to.
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