Er, why would 1,000 out of 20,000 be a surprising result for a vaccine billed as being 95% effective? What were they expecting?https://twitter.com/rkhamsi/status/1416163271904727046 …
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Replying to @cmuratori
The vaccine is way less than 95% effective at preventing infection, and you wouldn't expect 20000 to be infected anyway, so that 0.05*20000 calculation isn't particularly meaningful here.
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Replying to @XplodingCabbage
(Side note: I don't actually know what vaccine is deployed here - which vaccine is this likely to be?)
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Replying to @cmuratori
Pfizer - per https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/vaccinaties …, 72% of Dutch vaccinations are Pfizer. But the point about protection vs infection being lower is true of *all* the vaccines; 95% is a plausible protection vs death stat but all protection vs infection stats I've seen are in the 55%-70% range.
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Replying to @XplodingCabbage @cmuratori
Oh - apparently https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8099315/ … found ~95% effectiveness against infection. Maybe that's where you got the stat from! Not sure what to make of the varying effectiveness stats from different studies.
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Replying to @XplodingCabbage
Yeah 95% is Pfizer vs. control group. So if 100 people got infected, if they had all instead been vaccinated you would expect 5 people to get infected.
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Replying to @cmuratori @XplodingCabbage
So like, at least in my mind, that means that I don't take 1,000 out of 20,000 to be surprising number. I mean sure, probably not all 20,000 people would get infected unvaccinated, but like - look at those photos! It's probably close :)
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So like, 1,000 out of 20,000 is still the right order-of-magnitude for me _even if_ everyone had been vaccinated, such that I wouldn't expect anyone to be super shocked if it happened, you know?
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