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cmuratori's profile
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
@cmuratori

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Casey Muratori

@cmuratori

I'm worried that the baby thinks people can't change.

Seattle
caseymuratori.com
Joined March 2009

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    1. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Jul 16

      Casey Muratori Retweeted Roxanne Khamsi

      Er, why would 1,000 out of 20,000 be a surprising result for a vaccine billed as being 95% effective? What were they expecting?https://twitter.com/rkhamsi/status/1416163271904727046 …

      Casey Muratori added,

      Roxanne KhamsiVerified account @rkhamsi
      A music festival had 20,000 visitors, all of whom had to prove that they had been vaccinated, had recovered from COVID-19 recently, or had tested negative. So far, almost 1,000 have since tested positive. By @Marianne_Guenot h/t @vikkypaedia https://www.businessinsider.com.au/964-coronavirus-verknipt-netherlands-despite-test-vaccine-rules-2021-7 …
      Show this thread
      12 replies 10 retweets 137 likes
    2. Al King‏ @kingal Jul 16
      Replying to @cmuratori

      I’m not sure what the efficacy measures precisely, but surely statistically that means that all 20,000 were exposed for a duration sufficient to transmit? so still not an amazing job

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    3. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Jul 17
      Replying to @kingal

      Well, in theory it would measure the difference between the control group and the vaccinated group. So if the expected outcome is 20,000 people get COVID, then with the vaccine you expect 1,000 people to get COVID.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    4. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Jul 17
      Replying to @cmuratori @kingal

      In this case, maybe the expectation would not be that everyone would get COVID from the event - although from looking at the pictures, maybe that is what the expectation should be :)

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    5. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Jul 17
      Replying to @cmuratori @kingal

      But also, not everyone was vaccinated. So I mean... IDK. 1000 doesn't sound off to me even a little bit. It just sounds completely unsurprising. It's within the realm of expected possibility _even if everyone was vaccinated_, which they weren't.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Jul 17
      Replying to @cmuratori @kingal

      (And now that I think about it, it's especially weird because I don't know why they would think "vaccinated" or "tested negative" were like, equivalent criteria. Like the 95% literally means vaccinated people will be carrying this virus! 95% is not 100%! So weird :( )

      12:25 AM - 17 Jul 2021
      • 3 Likes
      • Sam Greg Morenz
      0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes

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