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This does not apply when the distribution is heavy tailed. The stopped clock analogy only applies in a Gaussian world, and most interesting phenomenon are non Gaussian non elliptic.
I believe you're overthinking it. Keep being a vocal doomer in this world and eventually you be able to say "see, I'm right!" and convince fools to buy your books. That's a broken clock saying the same thing over and over until one time it happens to be right.
Here's an example I hope clarifies my point better: You walk through a forest and you see a lot of deadwood and leaves. You warn everyone there is going to be an uncontrollable wildfire everyday and no one believes you since nothing happens, then one day it does happen. (1/2)
Was that a stopped clock being right? The damage from a wildfire is not Gaussian it is entirely controlled by the unlikely event of a large fire. The right way to think about the warning is not in terms of stopped clocks or predictions. (2/2)
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