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I found Schiff a really instructive example! In 2008 I saw an interview with him and thought "wtf this guy knew". Then I watched another interview and went "uhhh". The set of people who predict some surprising event often includes people who are wrong about almost everything
This does not apply when the distribution is heavy tailed. The stopped clock analogy only applies in a Gaussian world, and most interesting phenomenon are non Gaussian non elliptic.
I believe you're overthinking it. Keep being a vocal doomer in this world and eventually you be able to say "see, I'm right!" and convince fools to buy your books. That's a broken clock saying the same thing over and over until one time it happens to be right.
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