Dewsbury 10k, 33:30. Very happy with that. After a few injury problems over the last year I've not been at my best, so a real confidence builder. strava.com/activities/850
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Chris Smith 
@chrisroadmap
Climate scientist . Climate projections, radiative forcing, emulators, energy system. IPCC SR1.5 & AR6 contributor. Open science. Runner.
Leeds, UKJoined March 2011
Chris Smith 🇪🇺’s Tweets
Nicholas Stern gave us the IPCC's very likely range of climate sensitivity in 2006!
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I'm feeling lazy and my first google image search didn't find it. Is there a nice map of the R10 regions in #ipcc working group 3?
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Hey, I have some calibration data for FaIR 2.1. So far: CMIP6/RCMIP emissions as used in IPCC WG3 (v1.0) and the same but with Global Carbon Project's CO2 emissions up to 2021 (v1.0.2). More to come as and when incl. CEDS for SLCFs.
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less than 24hrs to get your abstracts in!
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Wow, things creep up fast. Right on the heels of an awesome AGU session, the abstract deadline for #EGU23 is next week - 10 Jan
Emulators and simple climate models: development and applications
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU23/session/
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Abstract submission open for #EGU23 session AS3.5 on composition-climate interactions. See meetingorganizer.Copernicus.org/EGU23/session/
On behalf of William Collins, , , myself and
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Do not miss the #EGU23 Call for Abstracts! Submit your abstract by 13.00CET 10 January 2023
Abstract submission guidelines egu23.eu/programme/how_
Please contact us for any questions or technical issues at: egu23@copernicus.org
#Sustainability #CircularEconomy #energy
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Wow, things creep up fast. Right on the heels of an awesome AGU session, the abstract deadline for #EGU23 is next week - 10 Jan
Emulators and simple climate models: development and applications
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU23/session/
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📢We have a vacancy for a #PhDposition in System Dynamics at the Department of Geography. 🌎
Starting date is March 2023. Closing date: 13.01.2023.
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✨New publication✨
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/90
IPCC climate assessment of mitigation scenarios
There are many different ways to reduce emissions.
The IPCC report looked at 1202 different scenarios and assessed how much warming is expected for each of them.
How?
🧵 (1/10)
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While trying to get FaIR out for an AGU-ready release (fail), me and Thomas Gasser also had a nice little primer paper come out on modelling non-CO2 contributions to climate change: authors.elsevier.com/a/1gG9W9C%7EIt
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Wondering how climate models are used to estimate the mitigation potential of methane? Need a refresher on earth system models vs. emulators? This excellent new Primer is for you: doi.org/10.1016/j.onee @chrisroadmap @ICASLeeds @IIASAVienna
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FaIR v2.1 is released!
github.com/OMS-NetZero/FA
pypi.org/fair
fair.readthedocs.io
Things have evolved quite a bit:
- object oriented interface
- parallelisation as standard
- new methane lifetime
- flexibility in species, timestep & run length
Calibration coming...
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I think this means that the accepted version of Dvorak et al. 2022 Nature Climate Change on committed warming beyond 1.5°C and 2°C is now out of embargo:
eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/188408/
(published version: nature.com/articles/s4155)
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Replying to @chrisroadmap
Manuscript released from #wrro eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/188408/ #OpenAccess
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It was a great morning! For those who were interested in the climate emulators and simple climate models get ready for #EGU23! You won’t want to miss session on simple climate models - development and applications
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It looks quiet now, but going to be a GREAT poster season for GC32L: Evaluating and quantifying uncertainty in climate models and emulators, convened by @krdorheim and colleagues. Come by! #AGU22
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hope you made it to #AGU22 ok and you enjoy all the sessions! Anyone heading to Chicago checkout this session GC26E-04 - FaIR-IMOGEN-Patterns for Impacts presented by Greg Munday 😁
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Tip for AGU in-person last-minute poster presenters: FedEx is cheaper than the official provider (~$74 inc. tax for 36x48 in; that's the biggest they do), there's loads of them in downtown Chicago & they offer same day pick-up if ordered before noon.
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Watching a talk in Chicago: "Taking climate uncertainty from FaIR and downscaling is now standard practice in econometrics" 🎉
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#gpt3chat: write rap battle between snoop dogg and dr. dre on whether geoengineering will solve climate change
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The other day I did a thread on modelled & historical concentrations, but this was not using harmonised data & the same model.
Now the data is available to compare across MAGICC & FAIR from AR6.
Both doing well for CO₂ (but MAGICC in last years?)
twitter.com/Peters_Glen/st
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What is going on with atmospheric N₂O?
@LeonSimons8 pointed out that N₂O concentrations have diverted somewhat from the modelled SSPs (based on IAMs, & presumably MAGICC).
Is this a problem? Well, it is hard to say, but probably needs more digging...
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Today is the official start an exciting new Horizon Europe project called WorldTrans - to build a new transparent integrated assessment model of the human-Earth system. Climate included!
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I’m very excited to announce a Met Office CASE supported @panorama_dtp PhD opportunity to develop the FaIR simple climate model supervised by and me! Closing date 4th Jan for Oct 2023 start.
Full description and how to apply: panorama-dtp.ac.uk/research/effic
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🚨3-year post-doc at Met Norway!🚨
We have an exciting new Horizon Europe project w/10 European partners to build a new systems-dynamics based IAM that includes feedbacks from climate change on human and natural systems:
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Great video, presenting results from nice new paper
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/we
3 key take aways:
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The study shows pledges to cut emissions agreed at #COP26 are not likely to be sufficient to restrain global temperature rise to 1.5°C
In this video, presenter @alexdeakin explains how more ambitious pledges could make a difference.
#MetOfficeCOP27 #GetClimateReady
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An update to the analysis we did last year on the Global Methane Pledge taking new signatories into account
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#GlobalMethanePledge when delivered by 150 signatories will save 0.07C of temperature rise - could save 0.1C if China joined @CONSTRAIN_EU @chrisroadmap
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P I L S: incidentally, sometimes the reason the paper didn't get started
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P I L F.
Paper I’d like to finish
@OpenAcademics
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Excited to unveil our Warming Stripes on Exminster Primary School!
exminster-primary.devon.sch.uk/curriculum/eco
A great talking point for awareness in the local community
Please retweet and visit the link! The kids would love to see how much impact our stripes get!
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So what is the message? The opportunity to reduce uncertainty in aerosol forcing has a lot of promise - and if I was to be provocative - more so than climate sensitivity. But either would be very useful, and give us more confidence in where we are headed under a given scenario.
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Aerosol forcing, at least in theory, can be estimated from observations over the last few decades. The uncertainty is still large and we can't go back to pre-industrial, but again great work has been done recently to narrow this uncertainty (e.g. Bellouin et al. 2020).
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We would argue that (E)CS is harder to observationally constrain. Though excellent work has been done over the last decade or so to reduce uncertainty (e.g. Sherwood et al. 2020; AR6 WG1 Ch7), (E)CS can never be directly observed.
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Given the strong anti-correlation between present-day aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity, this is essentially the same question viewed from a different angle. It's more intuitively obvious that low CS implies less warming, and high CS gives more warming.
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The unmasking of strong (1.5 ± 0.1 W m-2) present-day aerosol forcing gives 2°C of warming. Weak aerosol forcing (0.5 ± 0.1 W m-2) can remain under 1.5°C. All pathways are consistent with historical observations, by definition as constrained during the IPCC AR6 WG1 process.
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We took the IPCC AR6 projections of SSP1-2.6 using the reduced-complexity FaIR climate emulator and formulated the question as: "if we knew the aerosol forcing was strong/average/weak, what can we say about warming?"
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Reduce uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing, improve climate projections. Especially true in the 1.5°C-2°C range. New paper with in
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#EGU23 abstract submission is now open! Please consider submitting an abstract to ‘Composition-Climate Interactions’ - covering chemistry, aerosols and radiative forcing - convened by Bill Collins, , and me! meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU23/session/
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Back for round three! Emulators and simple climate models session is returning for EGU2023 meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU23/session/
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This is a big preprint from et al: CO2 forcing is temperature-dependent! Huge implications for simple climate models, GWPs etc...
more CO2 ➡️ stratosphere cools ➡️ more forcing ➡️ bigger ΔT
AMIP model IRF shows this (even dip in 1992)
arxiv.org/pdf/2210.12244
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always nice to be useful: the update to the social cost of carbon produced for the US EPA uses FaIR for its climate module
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Don't want to downplay the seriousness of the topic, but guys, there are more than three GHGs
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Right.
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As a co-author on any paper, I make it my responsibility to check for basic errors, that results are reported accurately, and that the methods are clearly explained so the results make sense. It shouldn't be pushed onto peer-reviewers to do that. Right?
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