MT @hblodget: Yes, @fivethirtyeight’s Nate Silver Is Betting The Farm http://read.bi/R4LJ0g
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@chrisgeidner Not really. Model accounts for 'system is wrong', that's the 16% chance. see last paragraph--> http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/ … -
@JakeReif Yes. We all read it. He's gone out on a limb, tho. B goes further than I would, but Nate's credibility is harmed w a Romney win.
End of conversation
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@chrisgeidner And a model that accounts for possibly false underlying assumptions is a good model, even when the assumptions turn out wrongThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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