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we extensively searched among reports, literature and news information on 288 #COVID19 international cases reported between Jan 3 and Feb 13, included information on clusters and epidemiological links. Data set available here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSrRHh_IYLDxzAzLCRh8ADSfpIgSFcXJx1Si5ctNjltvMKqrGGhVJhJj8dZxWeI9EZrdQAjau0x3KKC/pubhtml …
By analysing clusters of transmissions out of China we estimate that 6 out of 10 imported cases may have gone undetected. In line with @MRC_Outbreak and @mlipsitch group (but different approach)
A very smart way of looking at underreporting outside China. Congrats on the great work.
Thanks Sun!
What's the mortality rate on those 288? Did you look at that at all? Thanks.
Very hard to find confirmation on discharge. @C_Althaus and @JulRiou did some work on estimating CFR from international cases https://ispmbern.github.io/covid-19/
Incredible. Good job!
As you say results depend on intensity of surveillance. So case distribution among territories should be different (allowing also for non smooth superspreader events). UK/Germany hv v high active surveillance, US low according to reports. Yet same results in detection. Why?
Fantastic job!
Suggests this cannot now be confined and that every effort should be made to delay transmission, close schools and universities, delay sporting and large events, improve personal hygiene awareness. Encourage mask wearing, for no other reason that it increases awareness of hands.
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