The biggest challenge isn't building good models, its using them and sticking with them.pic.twitter.com/PtcFaHIfsz
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Yes, (although all 4th&1 not created equal) but the conversion rates on QB sneaks are extraordinarily high.
I just wasn’t even sure I was reading the graph correctly. But that strikes me as an asymmetric bet, though. The small downside risk has a BIG negative payoff. Payoff space and probability space are very different... I’ll have to dig into the NYT model!
Looks like on your own 8?
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