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Matt Chingos
@chingos
Education Data & Policy VP . DCPS parent (x2). Author of GAME OF LOANS & CROSSING THE FINISH LINE.
Washington, DCurban.org/policy-centers…Joined July 2009

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I love that this morning's NYT newsletter on changes in ASL managed to find a cranky retired professor to complain about the kids these days:
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Analyses of proposed policies (including legislation, informal proposals by legislators, candidates, advocacy groups, etc) can estimate how the proposal is likely to affect different groups of students, institutions, or government budgets. For example:
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We emphasize that these are ESTIMATES that are measured with (varying degrees of) error, so are more useful for research and policy analysis than for policymaking. But we think that, for many uses, MEPS is a significant improvement over existing measures.
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Some states report free lunch counts for their schools, some report direct certification counts, and some reports a mix or both. , Emily Gutierrez, and I developed a model to map these different measures onto a common scale.
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How does inequality in the U.S. manifest - from children’s earliest experiences in life to what they encounter as adults in the labor market - and what is role of higher ed? Join us on Thursday at for a discussion moderated by :
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Researchers use FRLP eligibility as a proxy for the share of students from low-income families in schools, but these data can be inconsistent. Emily Gutierrez, , and I built a new statistical measure, MEPS, to compensate for these differences:
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Normally adding administrative burden is a bad idea, but in this case it could have the upside of making the payment restart work better. Downside seems limited -- people who don't reconnect with their servicers are going to default regardless of whether they owe $15k or $25k.
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Here's how it would work: The 15 million borrowers who owe less than $10,000 wouldn't have to do anything, but the 45 million who owe more would have to connect with their servicers and make a plan to resume repayment (which could be $0 IDR payments if they are eligible).
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The payment restart appears on track to be a shitshow -- Dept of Ed is missing email addresses for 13% of borrowers. Biden could grab borrowers' attention by requiring them to reconnect with their servicer in order to get the $10,000 of forgiveness.
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President Biden is reportedly planning to dampen any inflationary impact of student loan forgiveness by tying it to the payment restart. I argue that coupling these policies makes sense but that Biden should consider going one step further:
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And stay afterwards for a reception with FREE BOOZE where you can mingle with DC's (triple-vaccinated) elite. Thursday, July 7 at 4pm -- in-person at Urban's L'Enfant Plaza headquarters and streamed online (register for link).
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Should school systems collect and publicly report data on the languages students speak at home? In a new Learning Curve essay, & Marguerite Lukes show how this kind of data could inform decision-making in education:
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Exciting news -- and great to see my colleague is part of the inaugural team!
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I’m pleased to share some big news: Secretary Cardona has appointed Jordan Matsudaira to serve as the Department of Education’s first-ever Chief Economist. Jordan, with years of higher education research experience, is the perfect person to carry out the role of Chief Economist.
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This income cap would make forgiveness slightly more progressive by phasing it out for borrowers with very high incomes.
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Upper-middle-income families would get the largest share of dollars and low-income families the smallest. Means-testing produces a somewhat more progressive distribution -- but not that much given the income caps being considered. Very similar results for $20k plan (not shown).
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Latest reports indicate the White House is leaning towards cancelling $10,000 of student debt with income caps of $150k/$300k for single/married borrowers. washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022 That income cap would shave ~4% off the total amount of debt forgiven (relative to no income cap).
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First, how much debt would be forgiven under different plans apparently under consideration? Forgiving up to $10,000 per borrower: about $410 billion in total. The income tests being considered would reduce that by 4-9%. $20,000 of forgiveness would obviously cost a lot more.
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