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Prikvačeni tweet
Launched our
#RANDCorporation#Brexit study this morning. Finds UK economy likely to suffer under most scenarios. Thanks to@ChathamHouse for hosting and@jimrollo3 for moderating. Thanks also to@Arconic_Fdn for supporting game theory chapter.pic.twitter.com/ztIZtAATvn
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In the upcoming phase of intensive negotiations w/ the EU, the UK will need to weigh the potential short-term economic effects of prolonged trade policy uncertainty against the potential negative long-term effects of an agreement that is made quickly but lacks comprehensiveness.
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The negative economic costs associated with such uncertainty would rise over time. If the renegotiation period extends to 2025, UK GDP could be reduced by £11 billion, with additional annual borrowing costs increasing to almost £3 billion.
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We found that by the end of 2020, UK GDP could be £4.4 billion (or about 0.17 percentage points) lower than if the UK had not been renegotiating its future economic relationship with the EU. The additional annual cost of extra borrowing would be almost £1.3 billion.
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These costs mainly stem from the reluctance of investors and traders to make longer term commitments related to UK-EU relations until they know the arrangements — trade, quotas and regulatory — that will apply going forward.
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Though
#Brexit is happening, many aspects of Britain’s future economic and political relationships with the EU are still to be determined. Our new study examines the economic costs associated with such uncertainty.https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR4265.html …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Charles Ries proslijedio/la je Tweet
Further trade uncertainty related to
#Brexit could cost the UK economy billions. New report from@charles_ries,@econ_hafner, and colleagues:https://bit.ly/2S74JkLHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Charles Ries proslijedio/la je Tweet
Beyond Brexit: understanding the potential economic implications of prolonged trade policy uncertainty
@RANDCorporation @RANDEurope @charles_rieshttps://www.rand.org/randeurope/research/projects/beyond-brexit.html …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Charles Ries proslijedio/la je Tweet
1/6 Ever wondered what a peace agreement for
#Afghanistan might look like?@RANDCorporation today published a detailed report from a study I led answering that question.https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2937.html …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Charles Ries proslijedio/la je Tweet
FT editor, Lionel Barber, tells us why the Brexit wrangling may have just begunhttps://www.ft.com/content/65453714-fa33-11e9-a354-36acbbb0d9b6 …
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Charles Ries proslijedio/la je Tweet
#TruthDecay, the book by@jekavanagh & me, available in Arabic here: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR2300/RR2314/RAND_RR2314z1.arabic.pdf …pic.twitter.com/WKLKcgGY1B
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As in other parts of the world, in the Middle East taking down barriers to trade clearly benefits economic growth. Our new study is here https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2375.html … and accompanying nifty calculator is here: http://www.rand.org/levant-calculator ….https://twitter.com/hidayj/status/1173704068071677953 …
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Charles Ries proslijedio/la je Tweet
Thanks to today's speakers and the
@AcadofDiplomacy for partnering on such a great event on the Hill today on risk and diplomacy.pic.twitter.com/HGDSdZG2Sv
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Charles Ries proslijedio/la je Tweet
Today is my last day at
@RANDCorporation. How do you sum up 12.5 years of a job that's always been more than just a job? A few things that stand out (with apologies for the descent into sentimentality)...Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
But that also requires figuring out what China really wants from the West, and making sure they don’t get it without making the changes we’d like to see. /end
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By the scale of their economy and its central planning aspects, China is different from any other player in global trade. That means the U.S. should approach them in a strategic way, bringing together on our side other global players, rather than tackling it unilaterally. 12/
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That means longer term complications for supply chains are likely — whether there is a deal or not. 11/
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But in general, the Chinese seem to be playing a long game for prestige (face) reasons and because China may assess that the U.S. might well renege on anything it might offer about component manufactures tariffs. 10/
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The Chinese strategy seems to be to offer better FDI terms (though that’s a throwaway because it doesn’t seem to be a core objective of the U.S.) and to offer to buy more U.S. soybeans for now (easily reversed by the government when it wants to pressure the USG). 9/
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This seems evident because finished goods were the last tranche of tariffs announced, and possibly already withdrawn. Hard to see that being the basis of any deal, though. 8/
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To get such an outcome, the U.S. hopes to only commit to remove tariffs on finished goods (esp. textiles, apparel, and footwear; maybe consumer electronics). 7/
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