as usual people have an incredibly poor sense of how often outliers show up in large populations https://twitter.com/notwokieleaks/status/991793179119767553 …
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the number of people who think it's more likely than not that reptilians run the US government? more than ten times that numberhttps://twitter.com/masterobscurity/status/991805278667640837 …
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Or, just - untrained human intuition really sucks.
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i think it’s good a lot of the time tbh but it has spectacular holes in it
End of conversation
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could just stop after 'distribution' without loss of accuracy
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People can't even consistently identify that the probability of x is necessarily higher than the combined probability of x and y
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