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chaosprime's profile
Chaos
Chaos
Chaos
@chaosprime

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Chaos

@chaosprime

combine the powers of that which is outside and that which is inside, and you will win glory in the whole world, obscurity leaving you at once

Joined July 2012

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    1. sonya! supposedly?‏ @sonyasupposedly May 19
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      "Never, not once, did we think we'd pay the ultimate price. But once you go through something like that, you realize that the tail-end consequences — the low-probability, high-impact events — are all that matter."https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-three-sides-of-risk/ …

      1 reply 1 retweet 13 likes
    2. I am not taking this conversation seriously‏ @jefflowrey May 20
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      Replying to @sonyasupposedly

      I keep having something to say about this and it keeps puttering out to something meaningless. This article talks about an idea that’s both obvious and yet packed. 1/n

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. I am not taking this conversation seriously‏ @jefflowrey May 20
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      Replying to @jefflowrey @sonyasupposedly

      But there’s this question of identifing an actual risk. You can identify a risk based on a very broad sample - something like “one in a billion americans will die in an avalanche”. But that fails to model the situation at all. 2/n

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. I am not taking this conversation seriously‏ @jefflowrey May 20
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      Replying to @jefflowrey @sonyasupposedly

      You can keep honing in, say “1 in 100,000 americans die skiing”, or “1 in 1,000 of americans who die skiing die from an avalance”… This starts to get you closer to understanding the risk that they were actually taking. 3/n

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. I am not taking this conversation seriously‏ @jefflowrey May 20
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      Replying to @jefflowrey @sonyasupposedly

      But this eventually runs into the Fog Of War - or at least a threshold of knowable certainty. And that threshold gets much bigger the further you move out of your own immediate knowledge of your own immediate situation. 4/n

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. I am not taking this conversation seriously‏ @jefflowrey May 20
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      Replying to @jefflowrey @sonyasupposedly

      Consequently, your position on the tail end of whatever you're looking will retreat towards 0 both the further away from your own situation, and also the deeper you try to analyze the consequences of your current situation. 5/n

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. I am not taking this conversation seriously‏ @jefflowrey May 20
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      Replying to @jefflowrey @sonyasupposedly

      This puts you in what @chaosprime would complain was a local minimum. And also overlaps with his question of knowing if you’re at a local maxima. 6/n

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. I am not taking this conversation seriously‏ @jefflowrey May 20
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      Replying to @jefflowrey @sonyasupposedly @chaosprime

      I both refute and support this with the fact that I am a medical unicorn that is so *very* far from 0 on the curve that the distance to ground is unkowlable from every normal perspective. Which almost gives me permission to culturally appropriate “Oy Vey, what next?” 7/7 = ∞

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Chaos‏ @chaosprime May 20
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      Replying to @jefflowrey @sonyasupposedly

      my main reaction to the piece is that "events of a class that happens very rarely are the only events that matter" is an understandable position from the standpoint of the kinds of neural activations that come out of trauma but it's not a real good place to live

      7:27 AM - 20 May 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • I am not taking this conversation seriously 🌻 horses Dailan
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. sonya! supposedly?‏ @sonyasupposedly May 20
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          Replying to @chaosprime @jefflowrey

          Guys not everything is wholly literal or totalizing. The point is, avoiding devastation matters, and here is an emotionally impactful demonstration. That's it. It's not a fucking philosophy treatise it's an example of how this dynamic plays out irl

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        3. I am not taking this conversation seriously‏ @jefflowrey May 20
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          Replying to @sonyasupposedly @chaosprime

          Yes, it’s an emotionally impactful demonstration that avoiding devastation matters… That’s the part that I said was “obvious”. There’s also this part that’s packed - what does “tail-end consequences” mean? And, you know… I wanted to explore the *complexity* of that.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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