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chaosprime's profile
Chaos
Chaos
Chaos
@chaosprime

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Chaos

@chaosprime

combine the powers of that which is outside and that which is inside, and you will win glory in the whole world, obscurity leaving you at once

Joined July 2012

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    1. Eye of Ra‏ @EyeOfRa42 May 16
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      Replying to @chaosprime

      Probability and statistics are fields which I’ve noticed even smart people sometimes find incredibly difficult to understand

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Eye of Ra‏ @EyeOfRa42 May 16
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      Replying to @EyeOfRa42 @chaosprime

      Used to think this only applied to when their politics were involved but seeing my smart engineer friend struggle with basic poker concepts made me think otherwise

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Chaos‏ @chaosprime May 16
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      Replying to @EyeOfRa42

      Chaos Retweeted Chaos

      yuphttps://twitter.com/chaosprime/status/991796486919761920 …

      Chaos added,

      Chaos @chaosprime
      hypothesis: untrained human intuition cannot estimate the frequency distribution of human preferences in a group larger than the Dunbar number
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Chaos‏ @chaosprime May 16
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      Replying to @chaosprime @EyeOfRa42

      here's what the top of that thread was commenting on, since the account got suspended lol (no great recollection what the block of brown used to be)pic.twitter.com/oidsnjyXYy

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Eye of Ra‏ @EyeOfRa42 May 16
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      Replying to @chaosprime

      Wait what does that have to do with your reply? Feel like the picture was important

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Chaos‏ @chaosprime May 16
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      Replying to @EyeOfRa42

      Chaos Retweeted Chaos

      this was my actual proximate replyhttps://twitter.com/chaosprime/status/991794494810066944 …

      Chaos added,

      Chaos @chaosprime
      as usual people have an incredibly poor sense of how often outliers show up in large populations https://twitter.com/notwokieleaks/status/991793179119767553 …
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Chaos‏ @chaosprime May 16
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      Replying to @chaosprime @EyeOfRa42

      Chaos Retweeted Chaos

      i feel like this is a good thing to keep in mind in general "one in a million" gets processed as "no such thing"https://twitter.com/chaosprime/status/991794689283108865 …

      Chaos added,

      Chaos @chaosprime
      one in a million means 300 in the United States
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Eye of Ra‏ @EyeOfRa42 May 16
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      Replying to @chaosprime

      Yeah another one of my favorite examples of this is people wildly overestimating how much any minority group was represented in America

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Eye of Ra‏ @EyeOfRa42 May 16
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      Replying to @EyeOfRa42 @chaosprime

      I can’t find the link but even educated people thought that 20+% of Americans were Jewish and a quarter were gay when it’s more like 2% and 5%

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Eye of Ra‏ @EyeOfRa42 May 16
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      Replying to @EyeOfRa42 @chaosprime

      I mean surely they didn’t run through a list of everyone they know and thought “yup about 1 in four of those guys is gay” right?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Chaos‏ @chaosprime May 16
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      Replying to @EyeOfRa42

      who knows, availability bias is a hell of a drug

      11:23 AM - 16 May 2020
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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