Probability and statistics are fields which I’ve noticed even smart people sometimes find incredibly difficult to understand
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Replying to @EyeOfRa42 @chaosprime
Used to think this only applied to when their politics were involved but seeing my smart engineer friend struggle with basic poker concepts made me think otherwise
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Replying to @chaosprime @EyeOfRa42
here's what the top of that thread was commenting on, since the account got suspended lol (no great recollection what the block of brown used to be)pic.twitter.com/oidsnjyXYy
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Replying to @chaosprime
Wait what does that have to do with your reply? Feel like the picture was important
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Replying to @EyeOfRa42
Chaos Retweeted Chaos
this was my actual proximate replyhttps://twitter.com/chaosprime/status/991794494810066944 …
Chaos added,
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Replying to @chaosprime @EyeOfRa42
Chaos Retweeted Chaos
i feel like this is a good thing to keep in mind in general "one in a million" gets processed as "no such thing"https://twitter.com/chaosprime/status/991794689283108865 …
Chaos added,
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Replying to @chaosprime
Yeah another one of my favorite examples of this is people wildly overestimating how much any minority group was represented in America
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Replying to @EyeOfRa42 @chaosprime
I can’t find the link but even educated people thought that 20+% of Americans were Jewish and a quarter were gay when it’s more like 2% and 5%
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Replying to @EyeOfRa42 @chaosprime
I mean surely they didn’t run through a list of everyone they know and thought “yup about 1 in four of those guys is gay” right?
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who knows, availability bias is a hell of a drug
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