reason is a fetter
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Replying to @leaacta
When the benefit of winning a fight is at least twice the cost of losing, overconfidence is strictly superior to accurately perceiving reality. http://fowler.ucsd.edu/evolution_of_overconfidence.pdf … (Derivation: Net gain from win is r - c. r/c > 3/2 r > 3c/2 r - c > c/2 )
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Replying to @Sahelanth
this is downright Nietzschean—following reason all the way to its unreasonable ends :)
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Replying to @leaacta @Sahelanth
Indeed. In this case supposing one could choose one's points of ignorance, or switch them off when not advantageous.
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Though in this case someone who accurately percieves reality could still save oneself from losing 10€ when reaching for 1000€ by betting that a six faced dice will give you 7.
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one could suppose this means that *some* evaluation of actual probability is worth having access to. on the other handpic.twitter.com/BlrVJOLgPp
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