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chaosprime's profile
Chaos
Chaos
Chaos
@chaosprime

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Chaos

@chaosprime

combine the powers of that which is outside and that which is inside, and you will win glory in the whole world, obscurity leaving you at once

Joined July 2012

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    1. Random Internet Dragon‏ @ErekaRegan Apr 4
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      Replying to @chaosprime

      Nope. https://twitter.com/DavidLat  He is even home.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    2. sam atman‏ @djinnius Apr 4
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      Replying to @ErekaRegan @chaosprime

      Thank you, that's one of the cases I've been 'tracking' but hadn't looked into it recently Jersey has 1400 patients on ventilation right now, so we'll get better data soon, one way or another

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Random Internet Dragon‏ @ErekaRegan Apr 4
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      Replying to @djinnius @chaosprime

      I wanted to link an objective survivor, I do know of at least two more, but they don't rate news articles.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. bowser‏ @browserdotsys Apr 4
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      Replying to @ErekaRegan @djinnius @chaosprime

      age is a relevant factor here. survival rates on ventilators are probably much better for the young

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Random Internet Dragon‏ @ErekaRegan Apr 4
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      Replying to @browserdotsys @djinnius @chaosprime

      Perhaps? He is in his 40s, so not in the young group. Diabetes, asthma, COPD are definitely factors. Smokers and vapers are NOT doing well.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. sam atman‏ @djinnius Apr 4
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      Replying to @ErekaRegan @browserdotsys @chaosprime

      sam atman Retweeted Matt Might

      I don't think that last bit is true at allhttps://twitter.com/mattmight/status/1245133108019703809 …

      sam atman added,

      Matt Might @mattmight
      So, this came out today from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6913e2-H.pdf … We tried to calculate risk for smokers (14% of the U.S. adult population) and then saw that smokers were only *1.3%* of reported infections. Assuming infections are random, smokers seem less likely to get infected. pic.twitter.com/mtLfUGBTXh
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. sam atman‏ @djinnius Apr 4
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      Replying to @djinnius @ErekaRegan and

      Can't find the study but nicotine inhibits ACE2 expression, which is where the spike protein likes to attach

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    8. Random Internet Dragon‏ @ErekaRegan Apr 4
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      Replying to @djinnius @browserdotsys @chaosprime

      I am friends with two ICU nurses - respiratory - one here in Htown and one in Detroit. While I don't have the objective data, this has been a common theme on their less successful cases. We're going to spend DECADES munching this data

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. sam atman‏ @djinnius Apr 4
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      Replying to @ErekaRegan @browserdotsys @chaosprime

      That's absolutely true but look at these numbers: 18,571 cases, 14% of adults smoke, so we expect 2,599 and see... 88? These are not small numbers, and this isn't a subtle effect size. This is 1/30th the smokers we should be seeing.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. Chaos‏ @chaosprime Apr 4
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      Replying to @djinnius @ErekaRegan @browserdotsys

      nothing particularly contradictory about smokers being underrepresented in cases and overrepresented in the worst cases

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Chaos‏ @chaosprime Apr 4
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      Replying to @chaosprime @djinnius and

      trivially conjurable scenarios: 1) greater inoculum dose required to effectively infect a smoker leads to greater morbidity 2) of people whose respiratory systems are damaged so as to become bad cases, a lot got that way by smoking or were self-medicating by smoking

      5:52 PM - 4 Apr 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • Random Internet Dragon sam atman bowser
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. sam atman‏ @djinnius Apr 4
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          Replying to @chaosprime @ErekaRegan @browserdotsys

          but the numbers don't support that either! hospitalized / infected is 0.43 for non smokers and 0.36 for smokers ratio of hospital admitted to ICU is effectively identical but it isn't worse.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. sam atman‏ @djinnius Apr 4
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          Replying to @djinnius @chaosprime and

          these numbers weren't handed down from Heaven, we have a long way to go before we get real answers

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation

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