hot take: all the desperate measures being taken around ventilators don't matter because the data we have out of China tells us that if it hits you hard enough that you need invasive respiration, you aren't going to make it
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Replying to @chaosprime
Nope. https://twitter.com/DavidLat He is even home.
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Replying to @ErekaRegan @chaosprime
Thank you, that's one of the cases I've been 'tracking' but hadn't looked into it recently Jersey has 1400 patients on ventilation right now, so we'll get better data soon, one way or another
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Replying to @djinnius @chaosprime
I wanted to link an objective survivor, I do know of at least two more, but they don't rate news articles.
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age is a relevant factor here. survival rates on ventilators are probably much better for the young
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Perhaps? He is in his 40s, so not in the young group. Diabetes, asthma, COPD are definitely factors. Smokers and vapers are NOT doing well.
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sam atman Retweeted Matt Might
I don't think that last bit is true at allhttps://twitter.com/mattmight/status/1245133108019703809 …
sam atman added,
Matt Might @mattmightSo, this came out today from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6913e2-H.pdf … We tried to calculate risk for smokers (14% of the U.S. adult population) and then saw that smokers were only *1.3%* of reported infections. Assuming infections are random, smokers seem less likely to get infected. pic.twitter.com/mtLfUGBTXhShow this thread1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @djinnius @ErekaRegan and
Can't find the study but nicotine inhibits ACE2 expression, which is where the spike protein likes to attach
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I am friends with two ICU nurses - respiratory - one here in Htown and one in Detroit. While I don't have the objective data, this has been a common theme on their less successful cases. We're going to spend DECADES munching this data
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That's absolutely true but look at these numbers: 18,571 cases, 14% of adults smoke, so we expect 2,599 and see... 88? These are not small numbers, and this isn't a subtle effect size. This is 1/30th the smokers we should be seeing.
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nothing particularly contradictory about smokers being underrepresented in cases and overrepresented in the worst cases
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Replying to @chaosprime @djinnius and
trivially conjurable scenarios: 1) greater inoculum dose required to effectively infect a smoker leads to greater morbidity 2) of people whose respiratory systems are damaged so as to become bad cases, a lot got that way by smoking or were self-medicating by smoking
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but the numbers don't support that either! hospitalized / infected is 0.43 for non smokers and 0.36 for smokers ratio of hospital admitted to ICU is effectively identical but it isn't worse.
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