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chaosprime's profile
Chaos
Chaos
Chaos
@chaosprime

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Chaos

@chaosprime

combine the powers of that which is outside and that which is inside, and you will win glory in the whole world, obscurity leaving you at once

Joined July 2012

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    1. Chaos‏ @chaosprime 29 Nov 2019
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      today i learned that Wolfram Alpha is exactly like a freshman in Introduction to Probability and Statistics in that it thinks that, if you have five 24% chances to get something, your chance of getting it is 120%

      2 replies 0 retweets 31 likes
    2. A‏ @AlexNelsonn18 29 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @chaosprime

      What would the odds be of (1) of those 24% chances panning out with (5) attempts ? I never learned how to calculate that in school, which is some BS.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Chaos‏ @chaosprime 29 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @AlexNelsonn18

      i'm thinking it's 0.24 times the probability of 4 failures, which is 0.3336, so 0.08

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. faun‏ @makoConstruct 29 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @chaosprime @AlexNelsonn18

      Probability of it not failing five times, so 1- (1- 0.24)^5

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Chaos‏ @chaosprime 29 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @makoConstruct @AlexNelsonn18

      i think he meant the probability of exactly one, not the probability of at least one

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. A‏ @AlexNelsonn18 29 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @chaosprime @makoConstruct

      I meant at least one 😆. Like compounded probability, never learned it. How does it increase? Is that what “logarithmic” means? Lol

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Chaos‏ @chaosprime 29 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @AlexNelsonn18 @makoConstruct

      oh yeah @makoConstruct had it then. they're supposed to teach you that if you took intro stats. they taught me, i was just trying to reconstruct it from first principles this morning lol. logarithmic means something else

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Chaos‏ @chaosprime 29 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @chaosprime @AlexNelsonn18 @makoConstruct

      the key phrase for this thing is dependent probabilities, because if the question you're asking is "at least one", that makes them dependent on each other, in the form of that you're only *not* going to get at least one if they *all* fail

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. faun‏ @makoConstruct 29 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @chaosprime @AlexNelsonn18

      Hrnn it makes them dependent when the result is known but not when it isn't. It's a causal merge

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Chaos‏ @chaosprime 29 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @makoConstruct @AlexNelsonn18

      didn't take too long to get above my pay grade lol

      9:28 AM - 29 Nov 2019
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. faun‏ @makoConstruct 29 Nov 2019
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          Replying to @chaosprime @AlexNelsonn18

          Everyone should read some variation of pearl's book of why, imo. I think they should teach causal nets to high schoolers instead of calculus. idk. Some high schoolers at least. All of our high schoolers are the same. What if calculus gets a memetic disease. Need to hedge

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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