corollary to the "something must be done; this is something; therefore this must be done" principle: when there is nothing beneficial to be done, in fact everything that can be done is harmful, the thing to be done which will emerge is the one that does the most useful harm
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giving people too much credit is a recurring problem with me
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The Dunning-Krueger effect people forget about. Fucks up my behavioral forecasting, but useful thinking about the present/past behavior: people often do things that are smarter than they are, and those who default to assuming people are smart are much more likely to notice.
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I think Hanson and Simler made a strong case that self-deception is highly pervasive in EitB. Deep dives with people who advocate harmful “helping” has convinced me the social component is a very strong factor: Many things are unthinkable b/c of the felt ostracism potential.
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I don't think we have the technology to reliably differentiate between self-deception and operational imitation thereof. Of course a bad actor would emulate making a honest mistake, especially a smart one.
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