you can tell 'cause "doctors prescribe STHC to patients who are getting better" doesn't cause the patient to get better i feel weird noticing this. like, i haven't read a lot of gwern, but he seems to be regarded as kinda this wandering renegade Miyamoto Musashi of brainy stuff
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so, like, if i point out to him this thing that looks like a trivial slip to me, am i going to be read as trying to score points off his reputation? or somehow else embarrassingly fanboy-climberish? he doesn't seem like the sort to block me for it like Taleb would but ugh
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but maybe he'd want to know? except maybe he'd actually want to want to know, but in point of fact knowing would be annoying, and i guess it's not exactly glaring if nobody else has pointed it out before now? god, i was reading social science today, is this what it does to you
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but like, what if it was there all this time as a test, and if i'm the first person to point it out, i get a golden ticket for a tour of the magical insight porn factory aaaaa
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I think this was a bad choice of hypothetical example on my part. What I meant was that there are all sorts of things like confounding by indication or regression to the mean which can easily produce a correlation between a drug use and a 'cure'.
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I'm going to rewrite that section to be more explicit and use something that people don't intuitively think of (incorrectly) as being irreversible and progressive, like depression or flu or something, so regression to the mean makes more sense as manufacturing confounds.
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Seems to me that he probably meant to say "doctors prescribe it based on symptoms that are predictive of eventually getting better" or something, judging by the "common cause" bit.
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