biggest grift in computing cryptocurrency can't beat it because cryptocurrency isn't *just* a grifthttps://twitter.com/techreview/status/1152828533460393985 …
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Replying to @b_cavello
strong family resemblance between "free infinite simultaneous computation" and perpetual motion machines and people are always willing to accept "quantum" as meaning "magic", so if nobody were exploiting that, there would be rational incentives mysteriously being ignored
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Replying to @chaosprime @b_cavello
quantum computing doesn’t mean free infinite simultaneous computation except when journalists are describing it though. but I’d agree that right now it’s more in the realm of physics research than practical computing
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Replying to @browserdotsys @b_cavello
yeah, it's not like the actual applications like reliable surveillance detection are uninteresting but that doesn't generate the-sky-is-falling ~threatening cryptography~ headlines there is at least one other context where it means that though: https://cdy.one/#faq
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so sad when we get the hardware and it turns out that how the hardware behaves demonstrates that none of the infinite payoffs the theory led us to believe we would get are things we can actually get
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I think my bet is that it’ll eventually deliver on its promise of factoring integers efficiently and speeding up simulation of quantum systems. and as scott aaronson says if they don’t end up delivering on that then we’ll probably learn some new physics which is arguably better
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i wonder if there are any prediction markets that would give me a good return on the integer factoring not materializing by, say, 2030
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negative predictions about technological development suck because on any reasonable timescale most of your bet is on whether the prediction market will still be operating
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at the moment I also suspect the prediction market pool is not significantly bigger than the personal bets Aaronson has made so I guess you could try convincing him to bet with you
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