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chaosprime's profile
Chaos
Chaos
Chaos
@chaosprime

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Chaos

@chaosprime

heartened by everybody's eagerness to participate in cryptographic wizard crimes

Joined July 2012

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    1. Dan Garfield‏ @danlistensto Aug 2
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      but who can do such a thing? conviction is easily misplaced and this constitutes a form of infohazard that we should be vigilant against (thus the weakly held clause), but it is useful for inoculating against apathy and complacency.

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    2. masquerobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 2
      Replying to @danlistensto

      "I'm probably wrong but this is the best guess I have right now and I've gotta do something SO---" compare: Box's aphorism about models

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Dan Garfield‏ @danlistensto Aug 2
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      the strong opinion there is "I'm probably wrong" rather than "this is the best guess I have right now" which means your action is guided towards refining the model rather than acting with confidence in the model

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. masquerobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 2
      Replying to @danlistensto

      hmm compare also eisenhower on plans and planning?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Dan Garfield‏ @danlistensto Aug 2
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      e.g. "plans don't survive first contact with the enemy"? and "but its better to have one than not"? that seems right to me and is a great example of strong opinions held loosely

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. masquerobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 2
      Replying to @danlistensto

      are we just split on the definition of "strong" here?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Dan Garfield‏ @danlistensto Aug 2
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      possibly. what do you think it means?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. masquerobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 2
      Replying to @danlistensto

      well it's n e b u l o u s, but something like "intense" or "confidently-espoused" I suspect intensity of belief is usually an indicator of sloppiness, either a thing is truly trivial (but these are rarely the subject of Discourse) or neither position is definitively correct

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Dan Garfield‏ @danlistensto Aug 2
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      I think we are a bit split on this. I see it as a measure of decisiveness (related but not identical with confidence) rather than intensity. strong belief is one where you can narrow the decision space quickly with little leftover alternatives/ambiguity. weak is the opposite.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    10. Chaos‏ @chaosprime Aug 2
      Replying to @danlistensto @eigenrobot

      yeah, the strength is that you've done enough diligence that you're comfortable acting decisively on it until something better comes along

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Chaos‏ @chaosprime Aug 2
      Replying to @chaosprime @danlistensto @eigenrobot

      it's a quixotic attempt to countervail the principle that the best must lack all conviction while the worst must be full of passionate intensity

      12:45 PM - 2 Aug 2018
      • 3 Likes
      • purpleposeidon Dan Garfield masquerobot
      0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes

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