but who can do such a thing? conviction is easily misplaced and this constitutes a form of infohazard that we should be vigilant against (thus the weakly held clause), but it is useful for inoculating against apathy and complacency.
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Replying to @danlistensto
"I'm probably wrong but this is the best guess I have right now and I've gotta do something SO---" compare: Box's aphorism about models
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Replying to @eigenrobot
the strong opinion there is "I'm probably wrong" rather than "this is the best guess I have right now" which means your action is guided towards refining the model rather than acting with confidence in the model
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Replying to @danlistensto
hmm compare also eisenhower on plans and planning?
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Replying to @eigenrobot
e.g. "plans don't survive first contact with the enemy"? and "but its better to have one than not"? that seems right to me and is a great example of strong opinions held loosely
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Replying to @danlistensto
are we just split on the definition of "strong" here?
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Replying to @danlistensto
well it's n e b u l o u s, but something like "intense" or "confidently-espoused" I suspect intensity of belief is usually an indicator of sloppiness, either a thing is truly trivial (but these are rarely the subject of Discourse) or neither position is definitively correct
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Replying to @eigenrobot
I think we are a bit split on this. I see it as a measure of decisiveness (related but not identical with confidence) rather than intensity. strong belief is one where you can narrow the decision space quickly with little leftover alternatives/ambiguity. weak is the opposite.
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Replying to @danlistensto @eigenrobot
yeah, the strength is that you've done enough diligence that you're comfortable acting decisively on it until something better comes along
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it's a quixotic attempt to countervail the principle that the best must lack all conviction while the worst must be full of passionate intensity
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