Ceteris Paribus

The interesting thing about investing in general is that there's no guarantee that more work = better results. Passive investors in equities outperform active on average People who just hold bitcoin outperform altcoin traders on average Usually the simplest approach works best.

The best part of the 2017 bull run is how everyone would just say "read the white paper", as if 99% of people reading them could actually understand anything in them. People feel better when they "do research", even if it's just reading a fairy tale they don't understand.

If you’re buying XRP I’ve got news for you son, you’ve got 99 problems and a pump is all of them

Seriously, how does ripple keep finding all of this?!?!https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1224475317768769538 …

7/ With this being said, I’m not optimistic the tax rules around PoS will change anytime soon & will continue to be a burden. I know @coincenter & @alliance_pos are pushing for this, but if I had to guess, this is at least a few years away, if ever. Maybe I’m just a pessimist.

6/ One thing to note is the forced selling pressure that would be removed if rewards weren’t taxed as income. Impossible to model out, but it would undoubtedly increase the assumed yearly compounding rate, furthering the delta between scenario 1 & 3.

5/ The difference between scenarios 1 & 3 is $1K more in tax and a portfolio worth $5.3K less after 10 yrs. Advocates are pushing to make scenario 3 a reality. Until this happens, the tax drag on these protocols is a severe headwind. If passed, it's extremely bullish.

4/ When comparing, the most applicable comparison is scenario 1 vs 3. Investors with large amounts of capital staked will have to sell the underlying token yearly which is an ongoing drag. Not only do you have a constant negative cash flow, but it impacts your compound returns.

0/ Thread on PoS Taxes. A change in tax policy is one of the largest catalysts for PoS protocol adoption. I've outlined 3 different scenarios, assumptions are: 1) $10K Initial Investment 2) 5% Inflation 3) 10% Yearly Price Appreciation 4) 30% Income Tax 5) 15% Cap Gains Tax

Gold is still a better safe haven than Bitcoin. That doesn't mean that a) #btc can't adopt this narrative as well, and b) #btc can't severely outperform gold We have a history with gold in times of turmoil, we don't with BTC. You're buying an option on this prophecy coming true

Bitcoin is the first asset that has the potential to offer extraordinary returns in both risk-on and risk-off environments. It had 10 yrs to legitimize under perfect conditions. Now we're seeing signs that it may be filling a safe haven narrative in 2020. Nothing else like it.