*Why We Fight* is a best new book according to , , , , , & more
Buy the book, listen to the podcasts, or read the reviews here: chrisblattman.com/why-we-fight/
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Chris Blattman
@cblatts
Economist, political scientist & writer . See my book Why We Fight: penguinrandomhouse.com/books/636263
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Great thread. El Salvador was not in a good place, but I feel very worried about long term consequences of the current police action. Mass incarceration of gangs has not generally been pacifying in long run. Admittedly country only has bad options.
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The peace that a full on military occupation brings is a temporary one, unless it becomes a permanent and totalitarian police state. This development in El Salvador’s long war on gangs is notable but raises several questions…(1/n) elfaro.net/en/202302/el_s
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In 2009 I worked with an organization delivering CBT to violent men in Liberia. 10 years later their crime and violence was down 50%. I’ll be presenting results in this webinar Tuesday. Sign up!
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2/7 - The Violence and Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean Seminar Series is back!
Join the next seminar where @HarrisPolicy's @cblatts will share analysis and results of using CBT to reduce crime and violence in Liberia 10 years later.
Register: bit.ly/40zGNZE
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I'm not sure people realize how big of a deal this is. High-altitude balloons might not be as sexy as autonomous weapons or hypersonics but I think they have the potential to be just as revolutionary for warfare, if not more so. 🧵 1/10 twitter.com/HopeSeck/statu
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Happy two-year anniversary to the video that best captures the feeling of being alive in the 21st century twitter.com/AdityaRajKaul/
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I will always defend the sanctity of the Oxford comma.
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Interested in learning more about programs like these? Sign up for my webinar on Tuesday, where I talk about the Chicago program and the West African program and study that inspired it:
twitter.com/beckerfriedman
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Here's the story of a city's response to spiking gun deaths. Of READI Chicago—an ambitious effort to build & study a program of jobs & CBT for the men most likely to shoot or be shot. Of HUGE success by some measures (64% fewer shooting & homicide arrests!) & no impact by others.
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Here’s a thread on the research
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What if I told you that roughly $500 for therapy + a little cash helped the most troubled young men in West Africa drop their crime and violence by half. For at least 10 years.
Almost 350 fewer crimes PER PARTICIPANT over 10y.
That's ~$1.50 per crime averted.
New paper & a 
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In 2009 I worked with an organization delivering CBT to violent men in Liberia. 10 years later their crime and violence was down 50%. I’ll be presenting results in this webinar Tuesday. Sign up!
Quote Tweet
2/7 - The Violence and Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean Seminar Series is back!
Join the next seminar where @HarrisPolicy's @cblatts will share analysis and results of using CBT to reduce crime and violence in Liberia 10 years later.
Register: bit.ly/40zGNZE
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I used to date a Canadian and now the pronunciation for pasta, in my head, is a complete toss up.
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Glorious. Absolutely glorious.
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Owen answering the real AI question I want answered
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Sure, #ChatGPT can write your NYT editorial, pass an MBA exam, or help you teach , but can it code in #Stata ? Not without some hallucinations of fictitious commands, it would seem! Blog post (thanks to @dmckenzie001 and @PJakiela for helpful edits): blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluati
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Probably the most insightful abstract of a book review ever written. I have a whole new level of respect for James Fenske.
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The answer is usually some vague version of avoiding escalation, which is traded against strengthening an ally with certainty.
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Agree with all this but I think there is also a simpler answer: Ukraine will eventually have an Air Force; they will not buy Russian; solve for the equilibrium. So the only question is “why delay the inevitable?”
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The economics of warfare suggests that Biden will eventually approve sending F-16s to Ukraine.
Why? A THREAD.
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There are good reasons to criticize Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador but calling him the "Tyrant of the Year" - comparing him to the world's worst dictators, and most violent regimes - is out of all perspective and was a terrible call by Index on Censorship. twitter.com/tribunemagazin
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We've opened the call for International Fellowships. We will fund early career researchers to come to the UK for 3 years to conduct high quality research in the humanities and social sciences. Please share widely!
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Wonder if this goes down as well in Guatemala as it does in Texas…
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Sebastián Arzú, guatemalan mayoral candidate, does a campaign video where he talks about his public security proposals while showing his gun skills.
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Do you want to come hang out in Bozeman, MT for a few days this summer? And present an applied micro paper?? ...and then go for a hike? Or a mountain bike ride? ...and talk about research? This small conference is for you!
Portal opening soon!!!! twitter.com/AgEcon_Econ/st
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We live in an incredible time and are likely headed for a future far beyond our imagination.
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Hence my question: What are examples of states and alliances making more predictable commitments short of full military alliances, and is there evidence that they are effective?
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The Western signal was also muddied by the fact that any sanctions regime and military sales would be ad hoc and reactive. There were no predictable red lines, punishments, or probability of enforcement. Surely this ambiguity helped to weaken deterrence?
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Russia's invasion of Ukraine was, in part, a case of failed deterrence. Russia didn't know Ukraine's resolve. Nor could Russia predict Western support. The West had difficulty signaling its resolve, partly because its leaders had little idea how their own voters would react.
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Curious: has there been research on anything akin to "NATO lite"—Countries to whom NATO does not pledge collective defense or full security guarantees, but does pre-commit to other forms of support—economic sanctions against aggressors, or supplies of military armaments?
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Wow
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I have been taught to yell “stop resisting” and “drop your weapon” after firing a gun, because bystanders will remember you said it and their memory will automatically reverse the order of the events to make it make sense. Their testimony will support yours, because of this.
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I have been told that deescalation techniques will get me and other officers killed and as a smaller LEO, I was justified escalating my use of force faster than my colleagues because I was always in danger so I should use it.
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Chicago metro area is 9.9 just give us the rounding!
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Great advice. This is an important part of the profession. I do my best to emulate this model.
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A busy month of refereeing, luckily with papers that I am really enjoying reading.
Inspired by @pereztruglia’s thoughtful notes, here are some heuristics I use while refereeing.
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Did not have this on my bingo card for 2023
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Rap battle between Gandhi and Martin Luther King, Jr. whyevolutionistrue.com/2023/01/29/rap via @Evolutionistrue
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An all-timer from the Attenborough archives: the superb lyrebird from southern Australia, one of the world's great mimics.
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Probably the best preface I have ever read on a book on China, & in its own way extremely honest and inforned.
Peter Fleming, 'One's Company' 1o34.
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Just finished Carter Malkasian's outstanding "The American War in Afghanistan." There's a lot of great work on this conflict by people like Rashid and Coll, but I think this is the new gold standard. Attached a link to my informal review below:
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Eddie Izard Star Wars canters did ok
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Honorable mentions include SNL land shark and Monty Python dead parrot, but only because it transitions unexpectedly into the lumberjack song and why cross dressing is no longer deplorable
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Clear winner was “who’s on first?” By Abbott and Costello. Distant second was Monty Python argument sketch.
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We randomly decided to introduce our kids (9 and 11) to the greatest comedy of all time. Who do you think won?
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Midjourney AI imagining different historical variations of Spider-Man:
1. Roman Legionary Spider-Man
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