What would you think about the ratio between the average market price of entry level musical instruments and a proxy for weekly earnings (either census estimates of median household income or the USDA poverty threshold based on qualification for free lunch)?
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What’s the endogenous variable? And what’s the outcome? The instrument is price?
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So in your view where does this leave "Atheoretical" or moment based instruments like Lewbel, Arellano-Bond, etc.? Shall we just drop those?
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I don’t have a strong informed opinion about those approaches and so would likely defer to the econometricians.
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Is there a list of characteristics of possible good sounding IVs? Part of this "let me sound convincing" is hard to play if it is a very new way of "finding" instruments.
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I don’t, no. I tend to think of good instruments as something only those intimately familiar with the institutional details can appreciate. Imagine knowing nothing about human fertility - then you won’t see Angrist and Evans “gender of first two kids” as a good instrument.
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Pretty strong priors you got there
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Yeah. The instrument doesn’t belong in the structural error term which is all ordinary determinants of the outcome. So if it makes sense, it probably belongs in the error term.
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What are your favorite instrumental variable papers?
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I actually really liked this paper of mine though. It uses the deviation in expected price of a pure gram of methamphetamine during two federal interventions to instrument for meth use and then estimates the effect on foster care and child abuse. http://www.scunning.com/cunningham-and-finlay-2012.pdf …
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