I feel that Bitcoin has to double bottom at $5500-6000, range to end the bear market, and start a consolidation period with an new uptrend. If it breaks support below that, other risks emerge and if it doesn’t get there, the market may be volatile for a while longer.
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In general, I think this is a healthy period of consolidation for crypto, and we’ll be better for it. The question really is will it last a few month, or until next year. Biggest risks for breaking the Feb 6 support will be if Bitcoin decouples and then miner profitability.
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The emergence of a trustless StableCoin will put extra pressure on Bitcoin if exchanges start listing trading pairs against StableCoins, and then alts start trading primarily against USD and other major fiat currencies. Do not underestimate the amount of trading pair arbitrage.
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Ethereum’s recent fall is somewhat supporting BTC as a reliable crypto store of value, but when ETH bottoms, then there is less of a cushioning effect for Bitcoin fiat liquidity demands will put extra pressure on BTC. We’re seeing some semblance of that right now in the market.
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That said, if we have a solid double bottom formation in the $5500-$6000 range, then I will be probably go bullish on BTC, but no expectations that we will see $20k for many months to come, if at all, this year. That said, reaching & holding $5500 is a big “IF” at this point.
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Dear Bitcoin Oracle, i don’t think you’re “predicting” it. i think you’re making it happen! so let’s try an experiment. how about “predicting” #Bitcoin to rally back to $20K by end of April? 


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