It does I believe - so if you see one coming up the map it's sometimes a good shout to hold back 
I haven't got this wrong, have I? Dropping behind doesn't negate the shell if you were first when it fired, does it?https://twitter.com/Sombrero_Kid/status/864747248541978624 …
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I always mess it up, though, and end up slowing up needlessly and *then* getting blue shelled.
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No, it doesn't. It might be worth dropping back a bit to try and catch the racer/s in 2nd/3rd in the blast, though.
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I thought it locked on later than when it was fired? Have I been slowing down needlessly this whole time?

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But if you were in the lead when it was thrown, then it'll hit you.
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I think all you can do, if your lead is small, is slow down just enough to catch 2nd in the blast as well.
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The shell does not "lock-on" to a target until it is near the front of the pack. http://mariokart.wikia.com/wiki/Spiny_Shell …
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Interesting - so if you back up before it's "locked on" (i.e. above you) then it'll hit someone else? Just trying to understand timinghttps://twitter.com/Sombrero_Kid/status/864810121716805633 …
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