Brian McCarthy

@briangobosox

Macrolens LLC, China-focused global macro strategy.

Stamford, CT
Vrijeme pridruživanja: svibanj 2013.

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  1. prije 5 sati

    So what? “Phase one” lays out a purchase list item by item. The tariffs could be 50% or -50%. No matter, they have to hit those purchase numbers. Which raises a question: what’s to prevent US producers from gouging the sht out of Chinese buyers?

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 6 sati

    Video of alleged doctors from exposed true picture of currently inside Wuhan: - Deaths are very underreported - Bodies are decaying in outpatient department - Government does not allow diagnosis to minimize no. of deaths

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  3. prije 20 sati

    WOW: Caixin questions the official narrative that the virus originated in the wildlife market.

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  4. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    This is amazing stuff for someone in China to put into print much less a Tsinghua professor. Someone will be joining the unemployment line and likely looking for a job abroad soon

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  5. 5. velj

    If your high schooler did this to a competitor for class President what would you say to them?

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  6. 5. velj

    China talking about “policy reserves” after having compounded credit growth at 16% for the past decade. So no, not so much.

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  7. 4. velj
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  8. 4. velj

    To be fair to WFC, it’s not clear here whether they’re forecasting reality or what the Chinese might report. But as far as reality goes, any forecast that doesn’t foresee the Q1 run rate as deeply negative relative to last year is non-credible, imho.

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  9. 4. velj

    : there is actually NO SUCH THING as an “undervalued currency.” A piece of paper can be worth absolutely anything, or nothing at all. Curencies are not “real.” They are nominal. If we switched to the metric system tomorrow, does the length of a football field change?

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  10. 4. velj

    Pro tip: they can’t offset a massive negative supply shock (if it turns out that is what is developing) with monetary stimulus. It is, however, the perfect cocktail for RMB weakness.

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  11. 4. velj

    Anyone have any idea WTH they're talking about? This incessant, emotional lashing out at the U.S. in recent days is perhaps revealing...

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  12. 4. velj

    “There is no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade,” said Hua, who conducted the briefing via the WeChat messaging app rather than the usual in-person news conference to avoid potential transmission of the virus. 🤔

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  13. 3. velj

    Looks like they picked the wrong year to stop sniffin’ WMP glue...

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  14. 3. velj
    Tweet je nedostupan.
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  15. 2. velj
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  16. 1. velj

    Thank god we live in a country where if a drone started barking instructions at people 80% of them would flip it the bird and the other 20% would open fire.

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  17. 31. sij

    So I've been getting hammered by the China hawk crowd for suggesting the Trump Admin. is going soft on China. But we keep accumulating data points here....

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  18. 31. sij

    Can this be right?!? Through APRIL 30?

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  19. 31. sij

    These forecasts are inane. The entire CNY holiday has been wiped out and we’re looking at the possibility of several weeks in which economic activity - not growth, OUTPUT - will be trending towards zero.

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