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Prikvačeni tweet
Today was my last day at the State Department. I wish my former civilian and military colleagues well as they work under extremely difficult circumstances to protect the interests of our great country. It was a privilege to serve alongside them.
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I’m pleased to see Carl and Marsha Mueller recognized in
#SOTU2020
and for the world to know that the U.S. Special Forces operation that took down Baghdadi was named in honor of their heroic and inspirational daughter, Kayla. (“Task Force 8-14”)
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Excited to be
@Penn today to deliver the annual Anspach Lecture. We’ll discuss presidential leadership in wartime, managing national security crises, and the common trap of setting goals before rigorously questioning how they might be achieved. Info
https://www.sas.upenn.edu/events/AnspachLecture2020 …pic.twitter.com/HCN0mb1Om5
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Gaps between ends, ways, means are filled by competitors and adversaries who know the landscape better than we do and can adapt more quickly to changing circumstances. Maximalist objectives and limited means beget tragedy in most cases—a historical truism we might start to heed.
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Proximate objectives can be less satisfying for public and internal consumption but they avoid the trap of insolvent policies that lead to failure and unintended consequences. Iraq, Syria, Venezuala, and Iran are all component parts of this story across multiple administrations.
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A chronic problem in U.S. foreign policy: declare maximalist objectives (regime change being the most maximal); overestimate our effectiveness; and underestimate the staying power and/or brutality of adversaries, particularly those backed by major powers.https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-u-s-bid-for-regime-change-in-venezuela-faltered-11580138560 …
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Brett McGurk proslijedio/la je Tweet
Despite resource constraints and a supposed grand strategic shift toward Asia, the Trump administration expanded U.S. aims across the Middle East—focusing above all on Iran.
@brett_mcgurk explains why the contradictions in this policy are unsustainable:https://trib.al/7C7AwTrHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Pleased to publish this “step back” piece with
@ForeignAffairs: how a maximalist Iran policy is irreconcilable with Trump’s own national security strategy. Pursuing unlimited goals with limited commitment and means is folly. The price of incoherence
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2020-01-22/cost-incoherent-foreign-policy …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
I’ll remain hopeful some of this (not just “we took the oil”) was discussed with Presidents Salih and Barzani. Staying in neutral or halting all activities benefits KH, which is threatening Barham’s life, rocketing American troops, and killing youthful protestors in the streets.
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The policy can be coordinated and reinforced with the nearly twenty military contributors in Iraq supporting the D-ISIS campaign. This historic
@coalition also brings political heft and influence when positions are fully coordinated in capitals. Doesn’t seem to happening now.Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
The US can have an engaged policy supporting patriotic Iraqis with a clear and achievable goal: early UN-backed elections under a new election law. It’s also critical to continue the D-ISIS fight. (Iraq not long ago saw 40 suicide bombs/month. Networks reconstitute w/o pressure.)
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2) And while only 9 percent of Iraqis outside Kurdistan viewed the US as a reliable partner in 2009, nearly 45 percent do so today (higher than the figure for Iran). This spike came out of the campaign against ISIS, and should be nurtured, not squandered.pic.twitter.com/e8w7hM1oNV
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1) Support for Iraq’s legitimate security forces (the ones our
@coalition trains) stands at nearly 80 percent and support for religiously-based governance has plummeted dramatically since the campaign against ISIS. The trend is post-sectarian, patriotic, nationalist.
pic.twitter.com/vIVqwrQW9l
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Below are two examples from
@CSIS polling, which has been generally reliable over the years
https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/event/190408_Final_IIACSS-CSIS.pdf?FleLtqvN_gWspFtU_88pIXMUYYAmt4f …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
The election in 2018 due to low turnout and other factors did not reflect the nationalist, youthful, and patriotic current in Iraq that grew out of Iraq’s war against ISIS. Moqtada Sadr came in first. Iranian-backed groups second. This did not reflect the pulse of the country.
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Presidents Barzani and Salih are vital partners. We could not have fought ISIS without them. They’re both courageous and striving for a truly independent, fully sovereign, federal Iraq. The U.S. needs a strong policy to support them and see Iraq through new UN-backed elections.https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1219998155548319745 …
0:58Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
It’s enouragong that Trump met with both
@BarhamSalih &@IKRPresident on the sidelines of Davos. It’s less encouraging that Trump used the time to say “we took the oil” and doesn’t seem to know the difference between northern Syria and Iraqi Kurdistan.pic.twitter.com/NSx7aSIxEqPrikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
This story is totally insane. If the Trump administration won’t contest extradition (instead they're goosing it to support false claims on refugee processing) then Iraq should drop the case against a clearly innocent man.https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/01/27/the-fight-to-save-an-innocent-refugee-from-almost-certain-death …
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Packed house tonight at
@SDSU for a lively discussion of foreign policy and strategic decision-making under the last three presidents. Sponsored by@SD_Diplomacy, which does a great job helping citizens engage on issues that matter. Hope to return soon!
https://twitter.com/sdsu_ciber/status/1218009078460375040 …
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Brett McGurk proslijedio/la je Tweet
ICYMI: Five international affairs experts convened at FSI to discuss escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran (featuring
@brett_mcgurk@milaniabbas@lisablaydes@ColinKahl@McFaul): http://ow.ly/bHdK50xXiQ2 https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/wake-soleimani%E2%80%99s-death-experts-discuss-what%E2%80%99s-next-iran-us-and-middle-east …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
I’m a bit late to this but can’t square these on-the-scene reports from Asad airbase where brave Americans could easily have been killed by Iranian missiles and Trump’s tweet later that night that “All is well!” It seems chance was the determinative factor.https://twitter.com/leloveluck/status/1216851279173103616 …
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