Great thoughts. How do you map these phases to the Perez phases: Irruption, frenzy, synergy and maturity? Perez seems to be talking a lot about financial markets and the mapping doesn't seem perfectly 1:1. Maturity isn't really macro rebuilding? Is it a mix of OODA and Perez?
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I’m using Perez as a loose parallel. Her first 2 combine into installation, which map to tool and alts, and her last two combine to deployment which is disruption plus macro-rebuilding. It’s not 1:1 rhyme. And yeah, there’s an element of OODA to the middle part.
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How does this cyclical building framework account for differences between fields? I work in machine learning. I'd say ML is in the alternatives phase with hints of both tools and disruption. Mostly automating existing processes, not building entirely new products.
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All good questions. Technologies at the right stage of maturation will be sucked into the building. Computers existed in the 1940s, but the post-WW2 rebuild didn’t incorporate them. That happened in the 70s.
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This is really interesting. Not at all a space I'm familiar with, so I appreciate the context to ITTB and really like your proposed framework for looking at the matter (love 23-24!) Amongst other things I was wondering: any thoughts on challenges in transitioning between phases?
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Specifically, I wonder about the cultural aspects to collective re-orientation e.g. switching from disruption to macro-rebuilding. Like, how much friction and inertia comes from entering a new phase with implicit assumptions/habits appropriate for the former but not next phase?
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Intriguing! We need folks that have ‘Marshall Plan’ level idea/ambitions!
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As a sales attribution datapoint, I listened to that and then immediately subscribed to your Substack. Looking forward to more exploration of the building phases model.
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Great thoughts here. Sharing
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Agree we do not have a national goal/plan! What do we want to look like in a 100 years
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