My brother, @JMichael_Wilson , did the illustration of the folklore hero, John Henry.pic.twitter.com/OmKBf0K7xH
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My brother, @JMichael_Wilson , did the illustration of the folklore hero, John Henry.pic.twitter.com/OmKBf0K7xH
To assuage my shame in not heeding @PTetlock ‘s plea for concrete predictions within the article, I’ll add some here:
-United States-
2030: 3 - 6%
(absolute terms) in tech driven structural unemployment—85% confidence
2040: 15 - 18%
“; 75% confidence
I’m reading Iain Banks’ Surface Detail to help me loosen up my priors & envision some new possibilities.
Great article but disagree that horse's best days are over. Equines are at bleeding edge of medical innovation & key to future of healthcarepic.twitter.com/1ifIDmruYS
Ha! I did not expect push back from that bit. Maybe you’re right, but I doubt it. Hard to imagine they’ll ever regain their core place in the economy—the number of horses for one thing have hugely declined. I don’t think becoming experimental subjects bodes well for humans...
To play devil's advocate, the ability of technology to enhance rather than supplant should be given more serious consideration. The scale is not transhumanism or nothing -- there's an ocean in between we're just beginning to explore. (augmented reality, exoskeletons, etc.)
I think it'll do both, but it's hard to see how enhancement will fundamentally change things. No one is going to change themselves into a backhoe to compete with a backhoe. Since these technologies move toward an optimal solution, seems to me they end up in a fairly inhuman place
Noice !
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