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bpcostello
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bpcostello

@bpcostello

family, good people, technology innovation, blockchain, college football, and American values. Boston roots and live in CA.

Joined December 2008

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Jul 2021

      I wrote about Delta and why we should not surrender to our dysfunction. There's much to be done, from vaccine mandates (yes, yes, it's time) to strong mitigations in schools (the "unvaccinated" include ~50 million children under 12) to response to surges. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/24/opinion/coronavius-vaccine-masks.html …pic.twitter.com/RWES6JE3pb

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      bpcostello‏ @bpcostello 24 Jul 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      Any idea what happened to the theory that mutations get weaker because they want hosts to survive? Seems like Delta variant blew that hypothesis out of the water. Thanks

      8:42 AM - 24 Jul 2021
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        2. Sielulintu - now with added Pfizer‏ @KoskelanLintu 24 Jul 2021
          Replying to @bpcostello @zeynep

          Non-expert opinion: a virus needs to keep enough of its hosts alive long enough to keep spreading. Covid is nowhere near the tipping point of killing so many hosts that it stops spreading. The Delta variant is more contagious, not necessarily more deadly on the individual level.

          1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
        3. Rob Nelson‏ @rnelson0 24 Jul 2021
          Replying to @KoskelanLintu @bpcostello @zeynep

          To add to that: the theory is better restated that if a virus mutation makes it deadly before it can spread, it will die out. As you said, covid is nowhere near that.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1.  🌲 ❄️ ☔Steve 🌙 ⛄ 🍁 🎃 👻 🌿 🍄 🌛‏ @SteveStory2010 24 Jul 2021
          Replying to @bpcostello

          Pathogens can become more virulent, less virulent, or stay the same over time. A lot of competing factors are involved.

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        2. markinthedark‏ @pre176 24 Jul 2021
          Replying to @rorynotsorry @bpcostello @zeynep

          That’s not optimal at all. If it spreads faster, yet retains its deadly nature, at the very least the same number die. Or potentially more because more can catch it and/or infrastructure is more likely to be overwhelmed.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Heather Wood‏ @heatherkaywood 24 Jul 2021
          Replying to @bpcostello @zeynep

          Viruses don't WANT anything. Mutations persist if they cause more people to become infected, creating more copies of the mutation. That can happen under a variety of scenarios.

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
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        1. Daniel Corcos‏ @daniel_corcos 24 Jul 2021
          Replying to @bpcostello @zeynep

          This is true only when death competes with transmission, which has not been the case for Covid-19.

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        2. GuyBaddis = Ojibwe Pun‏ @GuyBaddis 24 Jul 2021
          Replying to @bpcostello @zeynep

          Depends. A virus that is deadly faster than it can spread dies out. A deadly virus that spreads faster than it kills can spread (AIDS). A persistent disease might become “less” deadly because only resistant humans reproduce. A contagious strain can beat out a deadly one. etc.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. imaginarybar‏ @imaginarybar 24 Jul 2021
          Replying to @GuyBaddis @bpcostello @zeynep

          Also Delta variant’s shorter incubation time from exposure to shedding phase (average 4 days compared to average of 7 days for earlier variants) helps disease spread faster because infection detection & isolation don’t happen fast enough (if at all!)

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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