Only if you take the suggestion to be that releasing ppl is causing the drop. But I don’t—I read it as rebutting the claim that releasing inmates right now would increase crime. That crime continues to drop is solid (though not conclusive) evidence for that rebuttal.
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The overwhelming majority of arrests involve crimes with no identifiable “sheep” or with physically absent “sheep” (car break ins, etc)
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Fed”? It’s my job... and it’s not a secret. Go sit in an arraignment part for 20 minutes.
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Also tbc I didn’t say “without a victim id’d.” I said the victim isn’t present for the crime. eg, most larceny/burglary has a victim, but if the victim is present, the top (reported) charge is usually robbery. 1.5-2M arrests per year (out of 12M) fit that definition.
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I think that's basically right. Crime is a product of human interaction and amt of enforcement. Crime rates don't really measure amt of individual "wolf-like" deviance (a villainous "wolf" could burglarize an occupied home), so much as police presence and interpersonal conflict.
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But Chesa's point is that "letting out the bad guys" rn will save their lives, which is good (unless you're a psychopath), and won't meaningfully endanger the public. Your description supports that claim.
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I don’t see where he’s “twisting it” at least not in this tweet. But fwiw, I do think this supports not detaining people pretrial. It destroys lives and coerces guilty pleas. That rates aren’t increasing now is just another small piece of evidence in its favor.
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