Like the majority of Americans, I have an immediate family member locked up behind bars. My dad is in prison & at the age of 75, he is high risk for the virus. If we forget about incarcerated people we’ll lose to the virus and we’ll lose ourselves.https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-local-correspondents/chesa-boudin-on-his-incarcerated-father-and-the-threat-of-the-coronavirus-in-prisons …
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The fact that incarceration and families represent cluster events and not random sampling means that Chesa’s claim is almost surely wrong. The 65 mm claim a too simplistic, but is probably closer to the truth than Chesa’s arithmetic.
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The estimate of 65 mm requires almost maximum entropy (ie, that one and only one member per household s in prison). It presumes a lot of other things as well. But Chesa’s claim is embarrassingly wrong.
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