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more lessons in why you cannot trust the worldometer or the covid tracking projected daily data. yesterday worldometer reported this. 23 deaths in north carolina. here's the problem: only 1 actually occurred on 7/9. the rest were backfill.pic.twitter.com/NSkR0iqjB4
this is the real day of death data and it's been in steady decline since 5/25. so one more time, let's all take a breath and learn how to read this data. date of report data is not reliable to draw disease curve from. it's more data artifact than data.pic.twitter.com/LoqGmiuHV2
the data they report looks like the top series, reality is the bottom series. so hunting around for 2 month old covid cases to code as deaths and qualify for more CARES money can make a decline look like a rise.pic.twitter.com/vZTcvsROpb
and this is currently widespread.https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1281686147819683846?s=20 …
so be VERY careful trying to make claims about deaths, disease spread or even hospitalizations using data that is not vintaged by date of occurrence. NC has a great site and you can access it here: https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard/cases get the real data, get the real truth. simple as that
addendum: be wary of this issue as wellhttps://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1281697354827968513?s=20 …
Bro, is there any source we can go to get fatalities by date of death, nationally? (Or do we have to go to 50 separate state health sites?) Please advise.
My understanding is that you cannot b/c a few states, notably TX, does not give you this data However, an honest reporter would estimate it, since we have most of what we need to construct it. They would also put uncert bands around the last 3 weeks since that will no doubt rise
The Hospitalized to Case ratio is still an indication of correlation regardless of the measurement standards. Hospitalizations are about as close to accurate as we can get (when you can get them, Florida). https://bit.ly/coviddashboardsweb …pic.twitter.com/SWFZVwp8s0
“About as close to accurate” - maybe hospitalizations data meet those standards, but plenty of hospitalizations are “with” not “due to” so that even hospitalization data is very noisy.
but that's every day...not sure you are ever going to get information that fast
Yes, but you can estimate the uncertainty
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