In Italy, there’s an ongoing public debate about whether the coronavirus has mutated into a weaker form. How optimistic should we allow ourselves to feel?https://trib.al/BgFutgX
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Scientists working on vaccines speed up the mutation process to produce "live attenuated virus" vaccines, which produce immunity but not a severe illness. The question is whether the Covid-19 virus, known as SARS-CoV2, might take this journey on its own http://trib.al/BgFutgX pic.twitter.com/kRy1fEVAZO
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Coronaviruses are slow to mutate compared to influenza, and Covid-19 doesn’t appear to be different. Most mutations don’t result in any kind of meaningful change to how a virus acts http://trib.al/BgFutgX pic.twitter.com/j4rY42rvmM
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One study looking at over 15,000 genomes examined the emergence of a more transmissible strain. Any mutations appeared to be neutral or slightly harmful to the virus’s spread. Most other genetic changes seen didn’t seem like evolutionary adaptations http://trib.al/BgFutgX pic.twitter.com/AfoL8DcyJY
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Even for a pandemic flu -- a virus much more given to rapid change than a coronavirus -- a few months would be a short timeline for a widespread functional mutation http://trib.al/BgFutgX pic.twitter.com/TUfBwbKxTy
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There’s no clear cut evolutionary case for a virus like SARS-CoV2, which has already managed to infect more than 6 million people and often causes mild symptoms, to quickly get milder. If anything, it seems more likely to be genetically stable http://trib.al/BgFutgX pic.twitter.com/94cds08Ub3
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Without a lot more data and information, the evidence that mutation fans are providing remains anecdotal and may be compromised by selection bias. Less viral activity in lab experiments is more compelling, but Caruso describes it as a very early result http://trib.al/BgFutgX pic.twitter.com/2dmdLiwTiQ
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If the virus isn’t mutating into a milder form, what else can explain why it doesn’t seem as bad? Many other things, including:
Expanded testing and surveillance are catching people earlier
Public health measures are working
Seasonal effects http://trib.al/BgFutgX pic.twitter.com/CoiFPWPdor
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The most prudent path for a long time to come seems to be to treat Covid-19 as the deadly threat it was in Italy a short few weeks ago and continues to be around the world http://trib.al/BgFutgX pic.twitter.com/30s2SD2nuT
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and, studies show that people who got the flu vaccines were MORE likely by 36 % to get Coronavirus... Just saying. There
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Um, what studies? And are they actually credible or just theoretical


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