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One of the extraordinary things about this: @EU_Commission is triggering sanctions against #Poland, a member state, while it has refused to do so against #Turkey, a membership candidate, despite Erdogan's dismantling of rule of law.https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/943452390006710272 …
The move will galvanise PiS supporters in Poland, and people will close ranks. Politically, this will only boost the present government & spawn more euroscepticism. Pressure against Orban has achieved exactly that in Hungary before.
Now @TimmermansEU says this is for Polish citizens & "not attack on Polish nation" - but the majority will unlikely see it that way. It's a difficult dilemma for the Commission - inaction is as hard as action - but the decision is likely to backfire and further split the #EU
I understand even critical governments such as those of Austria (yes!) and the Czech Republic will support the @EU_Commission proposal re Poland. But this is only a warning, the ultimate sanction will not pass. So it's a toothless warning with a finite potential.
Polish government figures, including moderates such as Europe Minister Szymański, openly say that the @EU_Commission actions in general, and @TimmermansEU rhetoric in particular, are bolstering them in the polls. Bad case of damned if do/damned if don't. But Orban shows outcomes
Timmermans says "history will tell whether it's too early, or too late" for Poland sanctions. But what happened in Hungary is hardly much different, only Budapest much more skilful in handling objections.
And finally, there is no option to escalate this from here. Failure to achieve anything will just demystify the sanctions procedure.
Isn't it precisely because Turkey is not a member that the Commission couldn't trigger the sanctions?
No - it has a range of sanctions at hand including withdrawal of funds etc
Beating of Catalonians by Spanish police is ok too. #euvalues
This is an internal measure against Poland. Turkey is outside of the EU, therefore it goes back to each member state, like Germany who gives less Hermes insurances. EU could only stop accession negotiations (important diplomatic channel) or bilateral deals (refugees).
It could stop pre-accession funds
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