George Goncalves

@bondstrategist

Bond market veteran: +20yr on sellside & buyside focused on rates, credit, USD funding, Fed & global macro. My tweets are opinions, not advice! RT≠endorsements!

Tri-State Area
Joined August 2009
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Jul 8

    Fed B/S Update: I am skipping the asset side updates (unless anything jumps out). However on the liabilities side, a big change this week (+240b) where bank reserves popped up while TGA also came down. This is the key month for this sort stuff, stay tuned!

    2 replies 3 retweets 29 likes
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  2. 8 hours ago

    🔑 See this WSJ article below👇

    The Fed appears on track to use their meeting on Sept. 21-22 to tee up the start of the reduction in their asset purchases for their November meeting
    1 reply 2 retweets 9 likes
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  3. Aug 18

    👇

    shared thoughts/observations in more detail. its relevant for anyone with interest in macro and how to express views in equity markets. take a look and follow along. more to come. Growing but Slowing
    1 retweet 4 likes
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  4. Aug 11

    Latest thoughts pre-CPI/10s…

    George Goncalves , Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks us through a potential double-bottom in long-term rates and a turn higher from here, where markets will focus on how the delivers its taper plans.
    6 likes
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  5. Aug 9

    Here’s a balanced & clear view on various longer term topics in last week’s podcast (many views of which I agree with as well - try to guess) from (and one of your best chats too Brent). Encourage folks to listen if you haven’t and check out his deck.

    MacroVoices and welcome to the show to discuss how US dollar isn't really crashing to zero, his views on inflation/deflation debate, why soft commodities may be a good play if prices pull back & much more
    Show this thread
    1 reply 4 retweets 53 likes
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  6. Aug 2

    Fed’s taper goal and one of the only things that matter ahead…

    Fed’s tapering of asset purchases need not provoke a market tantrum, research suggests
    1 reply 4 retweets 15 likes
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  7. Jul 22

    Fed B/S Update: It’s been pretty straight forward lately for the balance-sheet. Yet the liabilities is where it’s most interesting, esp. in the coming weeks as TGA keeps shrinks. Interestingly enough, even with an enlarged RRP, reserve levels are rising.

    1 retweet 17 likes
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  8. Retweeted
    Jul 22

    . has been watching this market from the sidelines after having gone neutral duration in early July, choosing not to chase the rally but instead see how far it could go before reassessing his views.

    2 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
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  9. Retweeted
    Jul 22
    Replying to

    thx for flagging. the 3.5yr cycle period coincides well w/ manufacturing activity cycle (and china credit impulse). we can debate how deep the rate of change decline will be, but risk markets will likely recede first rather than wait to find out...already underway

    2 replies 4 retweets 19 likes
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  10. Retweeted
    Jul 8

    MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, George Goncalves, recaps what has felt like an unrelenting rally in long-term rates. He previews the June minutes and what to expect from the Fed and economic data over Q3.

    Fed and economic data over Q3
    2 replies 2 retweets 6 likes
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  11. Retweeted
    Jul 7

    We’ve had an incredible two years building – a one-stop platform and community for the best in macro and market insights. To share our work with the world, we’re offering an exclusive trial for just 24 hours: £3 FOR 3 MONTHS! Sign up here:

    3 replies 10 retweets 40 likes
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  12. Jul 2

    Fed B/S Update: Steady as it goes on the asset side but once again its the liabilities side of the B/S where the fun is at. Reserves saw a decent drop to ~3.5T (as banks don't want this to grow huh). TGA jumped $118Bs while RRP continues to impress us all.

    5 retweets 40 likes
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  13. Retweeted
    Jul 1

    The Fed has a problem. It did a hawkish shift on June 16, but long term yields - which drive US financial conditions & thus growth - are down since then. How is the Fed supposed to tighten if financial transmission is broken? Only solution is to sound more hawkish more often...

    14 replies 42 retweets 194 likes
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  14. Retweeted
    Jun 28

    The new found that its "measure of Chinese corporate borrowing fell to its lowest in the study’s history, and that expectations for loan demand in the next half year dropped — despite low ": ?

    17 retweets 26 likes
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  15. Retweeted
    Jun 25
    Replying to

    Pretty sure we can stop calling it lumber now. It’s Timber

    1 reply 2 retweets 67 likes
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  16. Retweeted
    Jun 25

    Rosengren: "I think in inflation, we've made substantial further progress. Maybe we have overproduced right now. But on the labor market, I still think there is significant labor market slack." On taper: says he could support winding down MBS and UST at same pace

    4:42
    “My concern about housing prices is... because prices are going up across the country,” President Eric Rosengren says. “If you look at financial stability problems around the world, they tend to be tied to real estate. So I think it’s an area that bears monitoring.”
    2 replies 2 retweets 5 likes
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  17. Jun 24

    Fed B/S Update: $8.1T and counting! However what's most interesting as I've highlighted for months is the liabilities (i.e. how Fed finances its QE purchases). RRP's over $800Bs, feels🚀going to potentially $1T & beyond, yet reserves stalled!

    10 retweets 41 likes
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  18. Retweeted
    Jun 24

    Is it really this simple? G4 CB balance sheet % change yoy (blue) with US 10yr BE (green lagged 4 months). My calcs est. G4 sheet coming 3-4% lower/mth off base effects. 6mth % change is <8%. Inflation scare peak is past or printer go brrrr again? 1 followed eventually by the 2.

    , , and 2 others
    2 replies 14 retweets 45 likes
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  19. Retweeted
    Jun 22
    Replying to and

    Banks don't need reserves to make loans. They need reserves to fund the drawdown of loans (ie payments) . And they need capital to protect depositors from losses if loans default or asset prices fall.

    4 replies 14 retweets 58 likes
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  20. Retweeted
    Jun 20

    Feel like “The Process” just hasn’t worked.

    4 replies 1 retweet 20 likes
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