NYISO now predicts declining load growth over the next 10 years, where economic growth is offset by #EnergyEfficiency and BTM #RenewableEnergyhttps://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL1N1SA1MV …
NYISO underestimates load growth due to Beneficial Electrification as we transition away from fossil fueled transportation and heating. Electric vehicles and heat pumps will increase load and efficiency while reducing emissions.
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Electrifying heating & transport can't happen soon enough. Brattle estimates this could double demand for electricity by 2050. I would view the acceleration of electrification as an upside scenario rather than the base case in the nearterm.
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You could definitely argue this will happen in NYISO's forecast horizon of 10 years, but I suspect NYISO will wait to see specific policies, regulatory mechanisms or observed market behavior that indicates at step change in electrification
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