California has avoided more heatwave-driven rolling blackouts so far this week via energy conservation, demand response, backup power and batteries. Could this be a lesson in meeting long-term grid reliability challenges as clean energy grows in scale?https://bit.ly/3haRWJi
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The charts below show how peak demand will evolve over time as heat pumps replace fossil fuel heating. Note: Geothermal (GSHP) reduces summer peak, while air-source (ASHP) does not. Both increase winter peak to more than summer peak, but GSHP increases peak much less than ASHP.pic.twitter.com/a33gP0FNWa
The key take-away from the charts in the previous Tweet should be that we simply cannot afford to expand electric grid capacity enough to allow a significant quantity of air-source heat pumps. We can only afford to eliminate fossil fuels by installing geothermal heat pumps.
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I think the take away is that we can't just be technology-focused and look at heat pumps of any sort as a silver bullet. We need to equally prioritize and optimize around even greater levels of load reduction. Insulation or a tighter envelope will also shave this peak.
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It is cheaper to install GSHP. A heat pump eliminates on-site emissions, while envelope work only reduces them. In NY, we get more energy today from on-site fossil fuels than from electricity. Grid Peaks will rise as we reduce both energy consumption and GHG emissions.
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