California has avoided more heatwave-driven rolling blackouts so far this week via energy conservation, demand response, backup power and batteries. Could this be a lesson in meeting long-term grid reliability challenges as clean energy grows in scale?https://bit.ly/3haRWJi
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Looking at this for SMUD, created a winter peak of about the same magnitude as the current summer peak (which decreased slightly). In NY, with colder winters and lower AC penetration, expect to see a larger summer peak and a new winter peak of perhaps 2x current summer peak.pic.twitter.com/h0mQn3B5xr
The charts below show how peak demand will evolve over time as heat pumps replace fossil fuel heating. Note: Geothermal (GSHP) reduces summer peak, while air-source (ASHP) does not. Both increase winter peak to more than summer peak, but GSHP increases peak much less than ASHP.pic.twitter.com/a33gP0FNWa
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The key take-away from the charts in the previous Tweet should be that we simply cannot afford to expand electric grid capacity enough to allow a significant quantity of air-source heat pumps. We can only afford to eliminate fossil fuels by installing geothermal heat pumps.
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I think the take away is that we can't just be technology-focused and look at heat pumps of any sort as a silver bullet. We need to equally prioritize and optimize around even greater levels of load reduction. Insulation or a tighter envelope will also shave this peak.
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We see air source heat pumps reducing summer peak. Though of course ground source would do more (but at what cost is the question). The question for NY is what % of homes newly get AC w/ a heat pump... guaranteed to add load. Heat Pump Data:http://t.ly/Fz0Q
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Air source heat pumps are either no more efficient than "air conditioners," or somewhat less efficient. An air conditioner is an ASHP that only provides cooling. If installing ASHP does reduce peak, it is only because you are replacing old devices with new ones.
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