California has avoided more heatwave-driven rolling blackouts so far this week via energy conservation, demand response, backup power and batteries. Could this be a lesson in meeting long-term grid reliability challenges as clean energy grows in scale?https://bit.ly/3haRWJi
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It's an interesting rub really... but the 6am morning winter peak created by heat pump electrification (HVAC) is low system cost, but is high in marginal GHGs and expensive to clear up. Given NY's zero-carbon goals... how are you valuing carbon in that equation?
In NY, given the CLCPA, we compute GHG emissions based on GWP-20 (20 year Global Warming Potential) and we include all up-stream production, transmission, storage and distribution emissions in addition to burner-tip emissions. Also, 1/
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NY goal is 40% emissions reduction by 2030, 85% by 2050 and 0% from electricity by 2040. Thus, emissions reductions drive policy, not social cost of carbon. Given clean electricity in 2040, we can also assume significant latent-decarbonization from Beneficial Electrification. 2/
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You have to start by doing that calculation using marginal hourly GHGs of a kW. We can't just assume that by 2040 all hours are GHG free because of a goal... We have to sort how to get enough clean electrons to cover 6am in the winter... not easy!http://t.ly/6Fhx
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Are those emissions hourly, locational, and marginal? If so, where can I find them? Here are the CA system numbers and forecast, though it varies by location substantially as well.pic.twitter.com/gs6B33Ctrz
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Here are marginal emission factors for all zones in New York State averaged across 2015-2016 by month, day-of-week, and hour-of-day. Note: 6am is pretty clean. Our problem is afternoon and evening. Solar will address afternoon, wind will address night and winter.pic.twitter.com/QVFjARaEoH
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