One of the first things I “learned” in this biz is that increased sales lowers electric rates for all. “Received wisdom,” really. Isn’t that just a between-cases benefit, quickly offset by increased rates due to even more fixed cost spending to serve higher persistent load?
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Wouldn’t the win-win be to not add the load AND reduce the pre-existing peak? I guess I am saying that I don’t like the “lower costs for all” argument for electrification any more that its twin: NEM increases costs by reducing revenues. Seems like playing into the wrong hands.
Rates drop when utilization increases. (i.e. higher kWh/Ratebase = good) Geothermal heat pumps lower summer peak and increase winter load - (i.e. "good.") Eventually, winter peak will exceed summer, but utilization will remain high -- lowering per kWh cost of increased capacity.