Energy efficiency programs decrease demand for natural gas heat but reduced demand won't reduce fixed infrastructure costs. So, volumetric delivery charges will be spread over fewer therms. The result must be higher gas delivery charges unless utilities reduce new investments.
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With important caveat that “won’t reduce fixed ... costs” applies only in the short term, and higher per-therm rates should be offset by reduced consumption charges for lower total bills. Spreading efficiency programs & benefits is key, especially for low-income customers.
Karl is correct. Efficiency should lower total bills even as delivery cost per therm increases. But, higher cost per therm will make gas less competitive relative to alternatives and thus increase defections from gas -- further increasing cost/therm. Result = Death Spiral...
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Toward beneficial electrification, perhaps?
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Agreed Bob. This is one of our arguments for full electrification. Odds are good that this death spiral will begin within the life of equipment installed today.
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