Gregor's ongoing thread is worth a read. But I need to harp on point in this tweet. The logic -- that as we add EVs we can add solar & wind and therefore that demand is coming from clean power -- seems reasonable. Except its wrong. Or at least incomplete. 1/https://twitter.com/GregorMacdonald/status/1087051479213473792 …
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At first blush it seems correct. If we add electric vehicles to the grid and we *also* add enough zero-carbon generation to exactly match the new demand, then that new demand is being met by zero-carbon energy. Right? 2/
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To illustrate why the logic is wrong, look at the scenario where zero-carbon generation grows, but demand does not increase. What changes? 3/
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We get *less* fossil generation; it ramps down to balance demand. In other words, the new wind & solar displaces fossil resources. 4/
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Sidebar: I am assuming, rightly, that the zero-carbon is dispatched first and regardless of demand. 5/
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Now let's add that new demand, say from the EV you bought and charge every day, back into the mix. What changes? 6/
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The amount of electricity generated by fossil fuels goes up; not the amount of renewable power. 7/
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We are, appropriately, doing a "marginal" analysis. Meaning, we look at how your specific energy choices affect the grid. How does generation *actually* change when you plug your EV in. 8/
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And yes, before you @ me saying that we need to do this analysis on a sub-hourly basis by region and fossil generation isn't *always* the marginal resource -- yes, I know! But most of the time, in most areas, it *is.* 9/
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Bottom line: just because we added an equal amount of wind and solar generation to meet new electric vehicle demand doesn't mean that those EVs are necessarily zero-carbon. 10/10
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Annual grid emissions depend on total, not marginal consumption. As the generation mix tends toward clean resources, average emissions are reduced since some EV's get non-marginal power. Marginal analysis is only relevant when assuming steady-state conditions. Not reality.
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