It would have to be really bad for shutdowns to happen; ie, Wuhan style overwhelmed hospitals.
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I agree, short term. However, the silent majority will be thinking twice about going out and spending money, if they know infections in their local area are on the rise; even more so if hospitals are getting overrun. I doubt any more lockdowns too
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And this means just a slower return to pre-COVID “perfect Econ” (which was not perfect but w/e) Silent majority don’t tweet, they just go about their lives. And it will be <100pc if pre-COVID spending if infections continue. Very hard to track this apart from slow recovery
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And with most expecting a major drawdown, if and when a second wave strikes, it will of-course do the opposite. Or perhaps just stagnate, but major drawdown either way improbable.
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If the economy is not shut down at least in some states, hospitals are going to be 3x over capacity in a month. How is that going to affect sentiment? That will be top news every day till it’s solved.
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That's the real crisis as I see it.
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Yep. I think the panic comes after Labor Day.
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Ok, maybe, but the drag on growth/future prospects is going to be significant. That isn't priced in yet.
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It will be the push/pull between earnings and P/E multiple. I suspect the latter will continue to edge out the former.
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