Well that's a nice side-effect of a pandemic I suppose lol
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This pandemic was not the black swan. It was perfectly foreseeable. The government's response on the other hand...
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like using common sense
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I would not classify a forseable event, such as the likely impact of a virus, to be a "Black Swan Event".
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This is not a black swan event. Scientist have been trying to warn us for years that a big one was around the corner and nobody gave a damn. That's the truth and reality we are in right now. We could have done better as a species.
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As Taleb and countless others point out, this is anything but a black swan event. We've known of pandemic risks for years, decades even, but have more or less consciously avoided derisking our markets, society and infrastructure. How is a SARS repeat at all surprising?
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Well, as far as the models are concerned it’s black swan like :)
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Its funny. Deep learning is known to require tons of data and be expensive to train and deploy but can still be thrown off by unexpected events. I think this furthers the case to employ methods that incorporate uncertainty, like bayesian models. Or reconsider when to use DL.
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A White Swan, if interested, “Had they read that book, they would have known that such a global pandemic is explicitly presented there as a white swan: something that would eventually take place with great certainty.” Taleb & Spitznagel (2020). Reference https://medium.com/incerto/corporate-socialism-the-government-is-bailing-out-investors-managers-not-you-3b31a67bff4a …
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w.r.t. your point, models that don’t require loads of data, to achieve SOTA results, that’s a white swan, meaning something that would eventually take place with great certainty. Actually starting to take place now, a good example of this is... Referencehttps://blog.waymo.com/2020/04/using-automated-data-augmentation-to.html …
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