If we do things to push the death toll down, that doesn't mean the model was wrong or that the threat was overhyped.
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Ever notice how disease modelers tend to make multiple models, or at least a model you can plug a range of values into? Models are as much about assessing our options as about predicting the future.
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All models are wrong. Some, however, are useful. - George Box
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When predictions are based on assumptions bias likely to creep in.
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