Once again, I have failed to construct parody arguments that would not be matched by the actual "evidence" entered into court. https://twitter.com/besttrousers/status/1326299847998251008 …pic.twitter.com/Xw80WMehRj
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The argument is that (Biden 2020 vote - Clinton 2016) vote is not normally distributed, which suggests fraud. But: 1.) There's no particular reason for it to be normally distributed. Not every phenomena is normally distributed. 2.) Eyeballing it, it *is* normally distributed.
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Oh jeez, it seems likely the "weird outliers" are entirely the result of bad data cleaning. For example, "Pleasant Ridge" was two precincts in 2016 (691 and 670 votes for Clinton, respectively), and one precinct in 2020 (such that "Precinct 1" had 1605 votes).
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Which is to say, that's where the rightmost outlier comes from - its a 914 vote difference!pic.twitter.com/3NPCy7DSrf
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@tsle33#appellatetwitter might find this interesting.Show this thread
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Did they not double check nulls on a join? "Yeah, just added some random land masses since 2016, it happens, you know, volcanos and stuff"
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I was trying to replicate it, did that check, and found that it seems to explain the errors. So...no.
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Oof. Triggered. May or may not have done this before.
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